Kyle Filipowski Under 13.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-121↓1%|+1

player points

Kyle Filipowski Under 13.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-121↓1%|+1

player points

30.10

Composite Score

+2.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

13.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the matchup against the Houston Rockets, a strong defensive team, Kyle Filipowski is likely to struggle to exceed his average scoring in this scenario. The evidence shows he has only topped 13 points once in his last five games, compounded by the risk of reduced playing time if the Rockets dominate early. The Net EV of 0.03, while positive, suggests only a slight edge in value; therefore, a lean bet makes sense with caution.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kyle Filipowski is currently averaging only 12.8 points over his last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 13.5 points, indicating he has not recently demonstrated the scoring ability needed to exceed this mark.
→MATCHUP: Filipowski's performance against the Houston Rockets will likely be impacted by their solid defensive setup, contributing to a challenging scoring environment, especially as Houston seeks to bolster their playoff position.
→NARRATIVE: The game context suggests a potential blowout risk with the Rockets favored by -13.5, which might lead to prolonged bench time for Filipowski if Houston establishes a commanding lead, limiting his scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Filipowski has only exceeded 13 points once in his last five outings, illustrating a trend of underperformance that reinforces the likelihood he will fall short again, particularly against a team like the Rockets.
→SITUATIONAL: The recent pattern shows that Filipowski has spent just over 21 minutes per game this season; unless he develops a significant role in the game, limited minutes will further decrease his chances of surpassing 13.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, Game Context Features

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 12.8 points over his last five games, just below the threshold. However, he has shown the ability to score significantly more against strong offensive teams.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a high-paced style of play which could lead to increased scoring opportunities, benefiting Filipowski as he would get more possessions to contribute points.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a significant favor for the Rockets (-13.5), it shows a strong likelihood of a high-scoring game scenario, which typically supports higher individual point totals.
→TREND: Filipowski's scoring has been on the rise, as he is contributing nearly 13.0 points per game and can capitalize on the Rockets' defensive weaknesses.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and will likely aim to respond with a strong offensive performance at home, pushing for a high-scoring game where Filipowski could find himself in more scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kyle Filipowski is currently averaging only 12.8 points over his last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 13.5 points, indicating he has not recently demonstrated the scoring ability needed to exceed this mark.
→MATCHUP: Filipowski's performance against the Houston Rockets will likely be impacted by their solid defensive setup, contributing to a challenging scoring environment, especially as Houston seeks to bolster their playoff position.
→NARRATIVE: The game context suggests a potential blowout risk with the Rockets favored by -13.5, which might lead to prolonged bench time for Filipowski if Houston establishes a commanding lead, limiting his scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Filipowski has only exceeded 13 points once in his last five outings, illustrating a trend of underperformance that reinforces the likelihood he will fall short again, particularly against a team like the Rockets.
→SITUATIONAL: The recent pattern shows that Filipowski has spent just over 21 minutes per game this season; unless he develops a significant role in the game, limited minutes will further decrease his chances of surpassing 13.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, Game Context Features