Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Under 4.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-118— stable
player rebounds assists
Cody Williams Under 4.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-118— stable
player rebounds assists
33.50
Composite Score
+4.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
22.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expected game narrative suggests a potential blowout, likely limiting Cody Williams' opportunities to accumulate rebounds and assists. Given he has historically underperformed in such matchups, and with the Houston Rockets' strong defense limiting his potential, the arguments for taking the Under at 4.5 are compelling. The Net EV of 0.04 is marginal and reflects that while the market underpriced this bet slightly, the risks of him hitting the Over in this scenario are significant enough to warrant passing on this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 1.0 assists and 1.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, totaling just 2.2 combined. This is well below the 4.5 threshold needed to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, which could limit Williams' ability to increase his rebounds and assists during the game, particularly given their recent success against lower-ranked teams.
- →NARRATIVE: The large spread of 14.5 points suggests a potential blowout scenario, which often results in reduced minutes for bench players like Williams. If the game is a blowout, he may not see the court in critical moments to accumulate stats.
- →TREND: In recent performances against the Utah Jazz, Williams has only reached the combined total of 4.5 rebounds and assists in one out of the last five games, indicating a trend of underperformance in contributing to both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the context of this game's spread and the recent performance of the Utah Jazz (losing streak, significant defensive weaknesses), the game might not require heavy contributions from Williams, limiting his minutes and opportunities to accumulate rebounds and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 1.0 assists and 1.2 rebounds over the last 5 games, totaling 2.2 combined rebounds and assists, suggesting some potential for growth to exceed 4.5 in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' fast-paced style and ability to generate numerous possessions (high total of 226.5) can create more opportunities for Cody Williams to accumulate rebounds and assists, elevating his chances to hit the over.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the game spread is a substantial Houston Rockets -14.5, there's a potential for blowout which could result in increased minutes for Cody Williams as the Rockets may dominate, thus giving him further opportunities to contribute in rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: While Cody Williams has struggled with production, he has previously demonstrated the ability to perform under favorable game conditions; experiences against competitive teams like the Utah Jazz indicate he can rise to the occasion.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries on the Utah Jazz and considering the team's recent struggles (L2 streak), Cody Williams may seize extra minutes and playmaking opportunities as the Jazz seek to compensate for their deficiencies.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 1.0 assists and 1.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, totaling just 2.2 combined. This is well below the 4.5 threshold needed to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, which could limit Williams' ability to increase his rebounds and assists during the game, particularly given their recent success against lower-ranked teams.
- →NARRATIVE: The large spread of 14.5 points suggests a potential blowout scenario, which often results in reduced minutes for bench players like Williams. If the game is a blowout, he may not see the court in critical moments to accumulate stats.
- →TREND: In recent performances against the Utah Jazz, Williams has only reached the combined total of 4.5 rebounds and assists in one out of the last five games, indicating a trend of underperformance in contributing to both categories.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the context of this game's spread and the recent performance of the Utah Jazz (losing streak, significant defensive weaknesses), the game might not require heavy contributions from Williams, limiting his minutes and opportunities to accumulate rebounds and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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