Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Isaiah Collier Over 19.5 points assists alternate
🎯 Core Value Bet
+121↓105%|+2621
player points assists alternate
Isaiah Collier Over 19.5 points assists alternate
🎯 Core Value Bet
+121↓105%|+2621
player points assists alternate
53.80
Composite Score
+15.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
75.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected game script where the Houston Rockets are favored to dominate, Isaiah Collier’s role as a primary playmaker places him in a strong position to excel, driving up his points and assists. The positive trend in his recent performance, coupled with the opportunities he’ll likely have against a weaker-perimeter defending team, suggests he can surpass the 19.5 points and assists threshold. With a positive Net EV of 0.15, this bet indicates that it is indeed underpriced by the bookmaker, supporting a confident wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Collier is averaging 8.0 assists per game over the last 5 games, just shy of the 9.5 point threshold but showing significant playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a record of 34-21 and are currently ranked 4th in the playoff seedings; their offensive efficiency suggests they will score significantly, thus providing opportunities for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a large margin with Houston favored by 14.5 points, they are expected to dominate the game, likely leading to Collier having increased assist opportunities as his team chases points.
- →TREND: Collier has shown an upward trend in stats, averaging 6.3 assists per game this season with an increase to 8.0 assists over the last five games, indicating potential for surpassing the threshold if he receives more minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: Collier is expected to have heavy usage due to the competitive nature of the game, as close games force stars like him to play more minutes, aligning with the market's implied probability of 96.2% for surpassing the assists threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Collier's assists per game average is 8.0 over the last five games, which is below the 9.5 threshold, showing he has consistently failed to reach this mark recently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are notably strong defensively, particularly against perimeter players, which could hinder Collier's ability to generate assists in a challenging matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets favored by 14.5 points, this game could turn into a blowout, leading to reduced playing time for Collier if the starters are pulled early.
- →TREND: Collier's performance has been subpar in terms of assists in his recent outings, averaging only 8.0 assists, suggesting an upward trend is not likely to happen in this game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread implies a potentially high-scoring game, but the large gap in spread typically leads to garbage time where key players like Collier get less run, negatively affecting his stat accumulation.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Collier is averaging 8.0 assists per game over the last 5 games, just shy of the 9.5 point threshold but showing significant playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a record of 34-21 and are currently ranked 4th in the playoff seedings; their offensive efficiency suggests they will score significantly, thus providing opportunities for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a large margin with Houston favored by 14.5 points, they are expected to dominate the game, likely leading to Collier having increased assist opportunities as his team chases points.
- →TREND: Collier has shown an upward trend in stats, averaging 6.3 assists per game this season with an increase to 8.0 assists over the last five games, indicating potential for surpassing the threshold if he receives more minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: Collier is expected to have heavy usage due to the competitive nature of the game, as close games force stars like him to play more minutes, aligning with the market's implied probability of 96.2% for surpassing the assists threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Related Wagers
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points assists alternate💤
+940+36.5% EV
Jabari Smith Jr Over 24.5 points assists alternate🚀
+511+35.0% EV
Alperen Sengun Over 39.5 points assists alternate💤
+870+33.5% EV
Reed Sheppard Over 24.5 points assists alternate🚀
+518+33.0% EV
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points assists alternate💤
+820+32.5% EV
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available