SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

Cody Williams Over 9.5 points assists alternate

๐ŸŽฏ Core Value Bet
+146โ†“113%|+1246
player points assists alternate

Cody Williams Over 9.5 points assists alternate

๐ŸŽฏ Core Value Bet
+146โ†“113%|+1246
player points assists alternate
36.90
Composite Score
+6.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
31.00
Market Divergence

๐Ÿงช SAL's Synthesis

I recommend a lean bet on Cody Williams Over 9.5 points and assists given the expected high-scoring affair between the Jazz and Rockets. The Rockets' fast-paced style of play and the potential for increased scoring opportunities, particularly in a matchup against a less effective Jazz defense, suggests that Williams could exceed his averages if he gets sufficient minutes. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates a minor edge in favor of this wager, which aligns with the narrative of a high-paced game, despite the concerns over Williams' current form and potential minutes in a blowout scenario.

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 1.0 assist per game over his last five games, which suggests he is capable of reaching the 3.5 assists threshold given increased court time. His minutes have varied recently, indicating opportunities for increased production.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets possess a fast-paced style of play, which should provide Williams with additional possessions to generate assists, particularly against a struggling Utah Jazz defense that has allowed significant offensive contributions from opponents.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the Rockets' significant -13.5 spread, they are expected to dominate this game, leading to increased scoring opportunities for players like Williams, especially if he sees extended minutes in a game that could turn into a rout.
  • โ†’TREND: Although his average for assists is currently only 1.2 per game this season, the high total of 228.5 indicates a potential for an offensive explosion, which can inflate assist numbers if he manages to find open teammates more frequently.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets currently on a minor losing streak and looking to rebound against a lower-ranked Jazz team, it's likely that they will push for a strong performance, giving upward momentum to all players in the lineup, including Williams, helping him exceed his assists total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

๐Ÿ”ด Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Cody Williams' current assist average over his last 5 games is only 1.0 assists, significantly below the 3.5 assists threshold, indicating he struggles to consistently produce assists.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, facing the Utah Jazz, are heavily favored by 13.5 points, suggesting a likely blowout scenario where Williams may not see enough minutes in the second half to achieve 4 assists.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: In a potential blowout, game script would lean towards the Rockets dominating and possibly resting starters in the fourth quarter, further limiting Williams' chances to exceed 3.5 assists.
  • โ†’TREND: Over his last 5 games, Williams has only reached 2 assists in a game once, showing a trend of underperformance against the 3.5 assists mark.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Williams is averaging just 21.2 minutes per game; if the game turns one-sided, he could see reduced playing time, diminishing his opportunity to accrue assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 1.0 assist per game over his last five games, which suggests he is capable of reaching the 3.5 assists threshold given increased court time. His minutes have varied recently, indicating opportunities for increased production.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets possess a fast-paced style of play, which should provide Williams with additional possessions to generate assists, particularly against a struggling Utah Jazz defense that has allowed significant offensive contributions from opponents.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the Rockets' significant -13.5 spread, they are expected to dominate this game, leading to increased scoring opportunities for players like Williams, especially if he sees extended minutes in a game that could turn into a rout.
  • โ†’TREND: Although his average for assists is currently only 1.2 per game this season, the high total of 228.5 indicates a potential for an offensive explosion, which can inflate assist numbers if he manages to find open teammates more frequently.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets currently on a minor losing streak and looking to rebound against a lower-ranked Jazz team, it's likely that they will push for a strong performance, giving upward momentum to all players in the lineup, including Williams, helping him exceed his assists total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

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