Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 23.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+410↓128%|+1860
player points assists alternate
Jabari Smith Jr Over 23.5 points assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+410↓128%|+1860
player points assists alternate
61.30
Composite Score
+25.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets is set to be a high-scoring matchup, with a total of 228.5, which supports elevated scoring and opportunities for Jabari Smith Jr. The evidence indicates that he's averaging 18.0 points and an impressive 3.0 assists over his last five games, along with facing a Jazz defense ranked 28th in assists allowed, enhancing his potential to exceed the combined points and assists line. The Net EV of 0.26 suggests the bookmaker has significantly underpriced this bet, making it a solid choice given the favorable game conditions and matchup dynamics.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 3.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, well above the threshold of 9.5 points assists, indicating his capability to contribute significantly in this area.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are currently ranked 28th in assists allowed per game, allowing opponents to facilitate higher assist totals, thus providing a favorable matchup for Smith's assist numbers.
- →NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 228.5, suggesting a fast-paced and high-scoring affair which typically translates to increased opportunities for assists and points overall for players like Smith.
- →TREND: Smith's recent performance has seen him average 18.0 points and 3.0 assists in the last 5 games, indicating that he is not only scoring effectively but also getting a notable amount of assists, aligning with performing above the required threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are a 13.5-point favorite, which may lead to increased minutes for Smith if the game remains close, or if the Rockets pull ahead significantly and rotate players, providing him more chances to contribute to the assist and point totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has an average of only 1.1 assists per game this season, which is significantly lower than the 9.5 assists needed to exceed this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are ranked among the top teams defensively against assists, limiting opponents significantly, which would hinder Jabari's ability to create opportunities for teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 favoring the Rockets, there is a high likelihood that the starters, including Smith, may not play significant minutes if the game turns into a blowout, limiting his chances to accumulate assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Smith has averaged 3.0 assists per game, demonstrating a recent trend of struggling to increase his assist output, making it unlikely he will exceed 9.5 in this game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have a strong tendency to manage minutes for their players when they have a healthy lead, which can further reduce Smith's playing time and opportunity to achieve a high assist total in this contest.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 3.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, well above the threshold of 9.5 points assists, indicating his capability to contribute significantly in this area.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are currently ranked 28th in assists allowed per game, allowing opponents to facilitate higher assist totals, thus providing a favorable matchup for Smith's assist numbers.
- →NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 228.5, suggesting a fast-paced and high-scoring affair which typically translates to increased opportunities for assists and points overall for players like Smith.
- →TREND: Smith's recent performance has seen him average 18.0 points and 3.0 assists in the last 5 games, indicating that he is not only scoring effectively but also getting a notable amount of assists, aligning with performing above the required threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are a 13.5-point favorite, which may lead to increased minutes for Smith if the game remains close, or if the Rockets pull ahead significantly and rotate players, providing him more chances to contribute to the assist and point totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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