Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 14.5 points assists alternate

🎯 Core Value Bet

+140↓104%|+3440

player points assists alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 14.5 points assists alternate

🎯 Core Value Bet

+140↓104%|+3440

player points assists alternate

45.20

Composite Score

+10.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

52.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for a fast-paced game given the total of 232.5, which should facilitate increased scoring opportunities for Duncan Robinson. Despite his recent lower assist numbers, the narrative indicates he will likely play significant minutes in a competitive matchup, suggesting he can surpass the 14.5 points threshold. The Net EV of 0.11 reflects a market mispricing that is supported by the agents' quantitative and qualitative assessments regarding Robinson's potential to perform well in this scenario.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists average of 2.4 per game indicates he is capable of contributing to the assist total, and recently he has displayed a trend that supports increased contributions during key games.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game environment, which favors increased possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, allowing Robinson to find additional chances to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are currently on winning streaks, this matchup likely remains close, which means Robinson will likely have higher minutes and usage in a competitive environment, enhancing his chances to exceed 4.5 assists.
→TREND: In the last game against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson recorded significant stats including a notable contribution, which supports the notion that he can replicate or exceed his performance now when they face off again.
→SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries on either team and both teams in excellent recent form (Spurs 8-game win streak and Pistons 5-game win streak), Robinson could see increased opportunities and minutes, especially in a critical game that affects playoff standings.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's verified assists per game is only 1.0 over the last five games, significantly below the threshold of 4.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: Against the San Antonio Spurs, Robinson may struggle due to their strong defensive capabilities, having the top-ranking defense in the league, which limits opposing players' assists.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be competitive, and with both teams being playoff contenders, this suggests that the starters will play heavy minutes, but Robinson's role is likely to be limited, impacting his assist total.
→TREND: Recent performance shows that Robinson has consistently underperformed in assists, with only 1.0 assists averaged over his last five games, suggesting a trend towards lower output in that category.
→SITUATIONAL: The context of a playoff-type game may mean reduced opportunities for Robinson to play a playmaking role, further supported by the close spread of just 1.5, indicating a potential for less ball movement and assists overall.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists average of 2.4 per game indicates he is capable of contributing to the assist total, and recently he has displayed a trend that supports increased contributions during key games.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game environment, which favors increased possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, allowing Robinson to find additional chances to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are currently on winning streaks, this matchup likely remains close, which means Robinson will likely have higher minutes and usage in a competitive environment, enhancing his chances to exceed 4.5 assists.
→TREND: In the last game against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson recorded significant stats including a notable contribution, which supports the notion that he can replicate or exceed his performance now when they face off again.
→SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries on either team and both teams in excellent recent form (Spurs 8-game win streak and Pistons 5-game win streak), Robinson could see increased opportunities and minutes, especially in a critical game that affects playoff standings.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+710+76.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 29.5 points assists alternate💤

+630+54.6% EV

Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points assists alternate🚀

+290+46.4% EV

Daniss Jenkins Over 19.5 points assists alternate💤

+980+38.9% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 49.5 points assists alternate💤

+710+37.8% EV