Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Daniss Jenkins Over 19.5 points assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+980↓143%|+3280

player points assists alternate

Daniss Jenkins Over 19.5 points assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+980↓143%|+3280

player points assists alternate

64.50

Composite Score

+38.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

90.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game between the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons is expected to be a high-paced match with a projected total of 232.5, which favors offensive production. With Jenkins averaging 2.4 assists per game and the Pistons being known for allowing high assist totals to opposing guards, he has a solid opportunity to exceed the 19.5 point and assist threshold. The Net EV (0.39) indicates that the market has mispriced this bet, aligning with the narratives of both increased scoring opportunities and Jenkins' potential for increased involvement given the Spurs’ current winning streak.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has averaged 2.4 assists per game over the last 5 games, showing he is capable of hitting the over on 4.5 assists given consistent minutes.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs face the Detroit Pistons, a team that has been known to allow high assist totals to opposing guards, which could benefit Jenkins' totals.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high projected game total of 232.5, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced offensive battle, creating more opportunities for Jenkins to accumulate assists.
→TREND: Jenkins is currently averaging 5.4 points per game over the last 5, indicating he has been more involved in the scoring and playmaking, a good sign for exceeding the assists threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Spurs riding an 8-game winning streak, they are likely to keep their starters heavily involved, allowing Jenkins ample opportunity to surpass 4.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins averages only 2.4 assists per game in his last 5 games, significantly below the 4.5 threshold, indicating that reaching this number is highly unlikely.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who have a strong defensive unit ranked highly in limiting assists, will further challenge Jenkins' ability to accumulate enough assists to exceed 4.5.
→NARRATIVE: In a likely competitive game with a spread of only 1.5 points, Jenkins may not see enough opportunities to distribute the ball, especially if the game is close and other primary ball handlers take precedence.
→TREND: Jenkins has consistently underperformed in terms of assists, as shown by his assist totals in past meetings against the Pistons, where he has averaged significantly less than 4.5 assists, indicating a lack of scoring opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Given Jenkins' low average of only 3.3 minutes per game across the season, it’s unlikely he will be given enough playing time to gather the assists needed to exceed 4.5, especially in a tightly contested game where starters will likely play the bulk of the minutes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has averaged 2.4 assists per game over the last 5 games, showing he is capable of hitting the over on 4.5 assists given consistent minutes.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs face the Detroit Pistons, a team that has been known to allow high assist totals to opposing guards, which could benefit Jenkins' totals.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high projected game total of 232.5, both teams are expected to engage in a fast-paced offensive battle, creating more opportunities for Jenkins to accumulate assists.
→TREND: Jenkins is currently averaging 5.4 points per game over the last 5, indicating he has been more involved in the scoring and playmaking, a good sign for exceeding the assists threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Spurs riding an 8-game winning streak, they are likely to keep their starters heavily involved, allowing Jenkins ample opportunity to surpass 4.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory

+710+76.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 29.5 points assists alternate💤

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Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points assists alternate🚀

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Victor Wembanyama Over 39.5 points assists alternate💤

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