Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+710↓186%|+1540

player points assists alternate

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+710↓186%|+1540

player points assists alternate

77.60

Composite Score

+76.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

92.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, the expected competitive nature of the game and the Pistons' strong offensive performance suggest that Tobias Harris will have ample scoring and assisting opportunities. With Harris averaging over 16 combined points and assists recently and playing significant minutes in playoff contention, the bet on him exceeding 24.5 combined points and assists aligns well with the projected game script. The Net EV of 0.77 reinforces this stance, indicating that the market has undervalued this wager based on Harris's recent form and the favorable game conditions.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points and 2.2 assists per game in his last 5 games, making his combined average 16.0 points/assists, well above the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are playing at home with a strong offensive rating, which will likely enhance the scoring opportunities for Harris and thus boost his assist totals.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in playoff contention and competing for a top seed, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to higher minutes played by key players like Harris, thereby increasing his chances of exceeding 9.5 combined points and assists.
→TREND: Harris has shown consistent performance recently, averaging over 16 points and assists combined over the last 5 games, indicating he is in a good rhythm.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, which creates a confident atmosphere and could lead to more offensive plays, especially from key players like Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris is averaging only 2.2 assists per game this season, and his recent performance shows no signs of a substantial increase, given he has only reached 3 assists once in his last five games.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are ranked highly defensively, which may limit Harris's playmaking opportunities, leading to less likelihood of him hitting double digits in assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the expected high-scoring nature of the game with a total set at 232.5, it's reasonable to anticipate a more focus on scoring than playmaking, which could keep Harris's assists down.
→TREND: In his last five games, Harris has only averaged 2.2 assists, indicating he hasn't been a primary facilitator or on-ball player frequently, which exacerbates the struggle to exceed 9.5 assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup against the defending 1st-seed Detroit Pistons may put additional pressure on Harris, leading his performance to be more focused on scoring rather than facilitating plays, reducing his overall assist numbers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points and 2.2 assists per game in his last 5 games, making his combined average 16.0 points/assists, well above the 9.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are playing at home with a strong offensive rating, which will likely enhance the scoring opportunities for Harris and thus boost his assist totals.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in playoff contention and competing for a top seed, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to higher minutes played by key players like Harris, thereby increasing his chances of exceeding 9.5 combined points and assists.
→TREND: Harris has shown consistent performance recently, averaging over 16 points and assists combined over the last 5 games, indicating he is in a good rhythm.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, which creates a confident atmosphere and could lead to more offensive plays, especially from key players like Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+630+54.6% EV

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