Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+290↓132%|+1190

player points assists alternate

Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+290↓132%|+1190

player points assists alternate

72.10

Composite Score

+46.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

77.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points and assists aligns well with the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with a total set at 232.5. Harper's ability to contribute significantly in assists against a struggling Pistons defense, combined with his recent scoring trend averaging 10.8 points per game, supports the likelihood of him surpassing the combined total. The Net EV of 0.46 backs the notion that this bet is underpriced by the bookmakers, making it a valuable wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has been averaging 3.2 assists per game over his last five games, indicating that he is well positioned to surpass the 7.5 assists threshold with a high-volume offensive approach expected in this game.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have historically struggled against opposing teams with high assist rates, making it favorable for Harper to contribute significantly in this area as he facilitates the offense.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5 for this matchup, the game is projected to be high-scoring, which typically leads to increased assists as teams move the ball efficiently to create scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Harper has shown a recent trend in his scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game, which not only indicates he is active in the offensive set but also allows him to create chances for assists as defenses collapse on him.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Spurs with 8 and Pistons with 5), suggesting a competitive intensity that will likely result in key players like Harper getting more playing time, which directly correlates with increased assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged only 3.2 assists per game over his last five games, which is significantly below the threshold of 7.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs, Harper's previous opponent, are currently on an 8-game winning streak, indicating a strong defensive performance, which could limit his ability to rack up assists.
→NARRATIVE: In a matchup against a high-performing team like the Detroit Pistons, the game script may lead to fewer possessions for Harper as he may not play significant minutes if the game becomes a blowout.
→TREND: Harper's last performance against the Spurs resulted in only a limited role with 16 minutes played and no assists, showcasing his struggle to consistently distribute the ball.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the current competitive nature of both teams, along with the Pistons playing at home and on a 5-game winning streak, there may be increased pressure on Harper, leading to decreased performance in distributing assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has been averaging 3.2 assists per game over his last five games, indicating that he is well positioned to surpass the 7.5 assists threshold with a high-volume offensive approach expected in this game.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have historically struggled against opposing teams with high assist rates, making it favorable for Harper to contribute significantly in this area as he facilitates the offense.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5 for this matchup, the game is projected to be high-scoring, which typically leads to increased assists as teams move the ball efficiently to create scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Harper has shown a recent trend in his scoring, averaging 10.8 points per game, which not only indicates he is active in the offensive set but also allows him to create chances for assists as defenses collapse on him.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Spurs with 8 and Pistons with 5), suggesting a competitive intensity that will likely result in key players like Harper getting more playing time, which directly correlates with increased assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+710+76.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 29.5 points assists alternate💤

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