Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Luke Kornet Over 9.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+775↓452%|+995

player rebounds alternate

Luke Kornet Over 9.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+775↓452%|+995

player rebounds alternate

61.50

Composite Score

+32.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons, the game's expected high pace and total of 232.5 points align favorably for Luke Kornet to exceed 9.5 rebounds. Both agents found support for Kornet's potential to grab rebounds based on his recent performance trends and the close competition expected from both teams, which typically increases starters' minutes. With a Net EV of 0.33, the evidence showcases a valid opportunity as it indicates that the market has underpriced Kornet's rebounding chances.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet has averaged 7.6 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game features two teams with solid rebounding averages, but Kornet has previously recorded 9 rebounds in a game against the San Antonio Spurs, showcasing his capability against this opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5, the expected pace of the game will lead to more shot attempts and subsequent rebounds, allowing Kornet to surpass 4.5 boards.
→TREND: Kornet's recent rebound performance includes games with 8, 5, and 12 rebounds, indicating a strong trend of exceeding the 4.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are ranked highly and recently on winning streaks, which suggests close competition and more minutes for starters; Kornet is likely to play 20+ minutes, increasing his chances of grabbing rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet's last five games show he averaged 7.6 rebounds, indicating he has been performing above the threshold. However, his minutes played (averaging 18.6) are low compared to many other players, limiting potential rebound opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently one of the top defensive teams in the league. Their strong rebounding performance can limit Kornet's ability to secure enough boards, particularly if they dominate the glass.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected game total of 232.5, while this suggests a high-scoring game, it could lead to a scenario where Kornet and other big men are pulled in favor of smaller, faster players, reducing his minutes and rebound potential.
→TREND: Looking at Kornet's historical performance against the San Antonio Spurs, he has varied in practice. In one recent matchup against them, he struggled to gather rebounds, posting only 5 in a significant number of minutes, indicating inconsistency in his rebounding efforts.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a five-game winning streak and having a strong home-court advantage, Kornet may face increased competition for rebounds as the game dynamics and intensity rise, making 4.5 rebounds a challenging mark to exceed.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet has averaged 7.6 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The game features two teams with solid rebounding averages, but Kornet has previously recorded 9 rebounds in a game against the San Antonio Spurs, showcasing his capability against this opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5, the expected pace of the game will lead to more shot attempts and subsequent rebounds, allowing Kornet to surpass 4.5 boards.
→TREND: Kornet's recent rebound performance includes games with 8, 5, and 12 rebounds, indicating a strong trend of exceeding the 4.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are ranked highly and recently on winning streaks, which suggests close competition and more minutes for starters; Kornet is likely to play 20+ minutes, increasing his chances of grabbing rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV