Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 14.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+449↓454%|+576

player points assists alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 14.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+449↓454%|+576

player points assists alternate

63.40

Composite Score

+29.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a highly competitive matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons, a fast-paced game with a high total of 232.5 favors increased scoring opportunities. Julian Champagnie is currently trending upward as part of the Spurs' offense, showing improvement and additional minutes during this stretch. The Net EV of 0.29 reflects a strong edge, indicating that Champagnie's contribution in points and assists is likely undervalued by the bookmakers in this context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 1.6 assists in his last 5 games, showing an upward trend as he approaches the 4.5 mark with increased usage.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring total of 232.5, indicating opportunities for increased pace and more shot attempts, benefiting Champagnie’s assist potential.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in strong current form (Spurs on an 8-game win streak and Pistons on a 5-game win streak), the game is expected to be competitive, leading to more minutes for Champagnie to contribute.
→TREND: Champagnie has averaged 12.2 points over his last 5 games, with a recent performance increase, suggesting he is becoming a more integral part of the Spurs' offensive scheme.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features two teams with stellar records (Spurs at 40-16 and Pistons at 42-13), which typically promotes a closer game, thus increasing the likelihood of Champagnie playing significant minutes and exceeding his assist total.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie's average assists per game is only 1.4, and in the last five games, he has averaged 1.6 assists, which is significantly below the 4.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs, currently with a strong winning streak, are a well-coordinated team with a solid defense that can limit the effectiveness of secondary playmakers like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: With the game's spread being tightly contested at Detroit Pistons -1.5, it is likely that players will focus more on scoring in a high-pressure situation rather than facilitating assists, which works against Champagnie's overs.
→TREND: In his recent performances, Champagnie has recorded very low assist numbers, only managing 2 assists in a single game over the last five, indicating a trend of underperformance in the assists category.
→SITUATIONAL: Champagnie is averaging only 23.6 minutes per game this season, which severely limits his opportunities to contribute significant assist totals, especially in a highly competitive matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 1.6 assists in his last 5 games, showing an upward trend as he approaches the 4.5 mark with increased usage.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring total of 232.5, indicating opportunities for increased pace and more shot attempts, benefiting Champagnie’s assist potential.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in strong current form (Spurs on an 8-game win streak and Pistons on a 5-game win streak), the game is expected to be competitive, leading to more minutes for Champagnie to contribute.
→TREND: Champagnie has averaged 12.2 points over his last 5 games, with a recent performance increase, suggesting he is becoming a more integral part of the Spurs' offensive scheme.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features two teams with stellar records (Spurs at 40-16 and Pistons at 42-13), which typically promotes a closer game, thus increasing the likelihood of Champagnie playing significant minutes and exceeding his assist total.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

+710+76.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 29.5 points assists alternate💤

+630+54.6% EV

Dylan Harper Over 18.5 points assists alternate🚀

+290+46.4% EV

Daniss Jenkins Over 19.5 points assists alternate💤

+980+38.9% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 49.5 points assists alternate💤

+710+37.8% EV