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Ausar Thompson Under 12.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-400↑238%|-690

player points alternate

Ausar Thompson Under 12.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-400↑238%|-690

player points alternate

37.20

Composite Score

+3.0%

Net EV

65.00

Narrative Fit

5.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, Ausar Thompson is unlikely to exceed 12.5 points, given his recent scoring average of 11.8 and the Spurs' strong defensive capabilities against guards. The close nature of the game is projected to limit offensive opportunities late, which supports betting the Under, despite a slight +EV of 0.03 that indicates the market may be undervaluing this line. Overall, Thompson's lack of extensive playing time combined with the matchup suggests his scoring output will remain subdued.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging only 11.8 points over his last 5 games, significantly lower than the 19.5 points required to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank among the top defenses in the league, making scoring difficult for opposing guards, which strongly works against Thompson's ability to surpass the points threshold.
→NARRATIVE: Given the expected close nature of the game reflected in the small spread of 1.5 points, it is unlikely that Thompson will see an increase in offensive opportunities at the end of the game, limiting his scoring potential.
→TREND: Thompson has not exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last 5 games, suggesting a trend of underperformance in terms of scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: With an overall average of 22.5 minutes per game, Thompson is not projected to receive ample playtime to accumulate the required points, especially considering possible load management as teams often give players rest during critical stretches of the season.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's last 5 games show a scoring average of 11.8 points per game, but he has averaged 4.4 free throw attempts, indicating he has opportunities to score and can get to the line frequently.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a relatively high pace and scoring efficiency, will provide Thompson increased opportunities to exceed his scoring average.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game, which typically favors an increase in individual player scoring outputs.
→TREND: In the previous matchup against the Spurs, Ausar recorded 25 points, which suggests he can perform well against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this game, with the spread at 1.5, implies it will be closely contested, leading to extended minutes for Thompson and greater chances to accumulate points.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging only 11.8 points over his last 5 games, significantly lower than the 19.5 points required to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank among the top defenses in the league, making scoring difficult for opposing guards, which strongly works against Thompson's ability to surpass the points threshold.
→NARRATIVE: Given the expected close nature of the game reflected in the small spread of 1.5 points, it is unlikely that Thompson will see an increase in offensive opportunities at the end of the game, limiting his scoring potential.
→TREND: Thompson has not exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last 5 games, suggesting a trend of underperformance in terms of scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: With an overall average of 22.5 minutes per game, Thompson is not projected to receive ample playtime to accumulate the required points, especially considering possible load management as teams often give players rest during critical stretches of the season.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

+1100+37.5% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1260+17.4% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1700+16.8% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1000+16.4% EV