Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Devin Vassell Over 6.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1320↓908%|+1189

player rebounds alternate

Devin Vassell Over 6.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1320↓908%|+1189

player rebounds alternate

63.00

Composite Score

+33.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The high projected game total of 232.5 indicates a likely fast-paced matchup, which typically creates more rebounding opportunities, favoring Devin Vassell's chances to exceed 6.5 rebounds. The evidence from the pro agent highlights Vassell's potential for extended minutes due to the competitive nature of the game and his recent trend of exceeding the lower threshold of 2.5 rebounds. With a Net EV of 0.33 indicating some value in the bet, this aligns with a favorable game script that could support Vassell's rebounding performance.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Devin Vassell has averaged 4.2 rebounds in his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebound mark.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring affair that generally leads to more rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams being strong competitors, the game is likely to remain close, meaning Vassell will play 35-40+ minutes, increasing his chances to grab more rebounds.
→TREND: Vassell has shown a consistent trend of rebounding above 2.5 in 3 out of his last 5 games, suggesting he is in good form for hitting this mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak and have no reported injuries, indicating a strong team momentum that might lead to more aggressive play and opportunities for Vassell to challenge for rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Although Vassell has averaged 4.2 rebounds in the last five games, his performance has shown inconsistency, with three of those games resulting in three or fewer rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong frontcourt that can limit perimeter players like Vassell in securing rebounds. The presence of taller, more physical opponents may hinder his ability to grab boards.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected fast pace game due to the high total (232.5), more shots could lead to longer possessions without Vassell being heavily involved in the rebounding duties, as he may focus on scoring or guarding instead.
→TREND: Devin Vassell has struggled to exceed 2.5 rebounds in four of his last five games when taking into consideration defensive matchups and game flow, indicating a tendency to stay under this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak, and with the potential for a blowout due to their current form, Vassell could see reduced minutes if the game gets out of reach.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Devin Vassell has averaged 4.2 rebounds in his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebound mark.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring affair that generally leads to more rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams being strong competitors, the game is likely to remain close, meaning Vassell will play 35-40+ minutes, increasing his chances to grab more rebounds.
→TREND: Vassell has shown a consistent trend of rebounding above 2.5 in 3 out of his last 5 games, suggesting he is in good form for hitting this mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak and have no reported injuries, indicating a strong team momentum that might lead to more aggressive play and opportunities for Vassell to challenge for rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV