Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Under 9.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-225↑180%|-505

player points alternate

Julian Champagnie Under 9.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-225↑180%|-505

player points alternate

35.30

Composite Score

+6.5%

Net EV

65.00

Narrative Fit

12.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected close contest between the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons suggests limited scoring opportunities for Julian Champagnie, especially considering the Spurs' strong defensive performance. Champagnie's recent trend of underwhelming scoring, along with evidence that he hasn't exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last five games, supports a bet on the Under for his points total. The Net EV score of 0.07 indicates a slight edge in our favor based on the assessments provided, suggesting the market may have slightly undervalued this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has an average of only 12.2 points per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the 19.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive record, currently positioned as the 2nd seed, implying they can limit opposing players' scoring, particularly against less established scorers like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be closely contested given the small spread of 1.5, which could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Champagnie if he doesn't play a pivotal role.
→TREND: Champagnie has not exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last five games, reinforcing a trend of underperformance relative to this points total.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak and have no significant injuries, likely resulting in a tight game where scoring opportunities may be distributed less favorably for Champagnie.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points over his last five games, with a recent increase in his scoring potential as reflected in his 3PM/game of 2.8 and high 3P% of 44.5%.
→MATCHUP: The game total of 232.5 indicates a high-scoring matchup, suggesting that Champagnie will have more opportunities to score points against the Detroit Pistons.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread of just -1.5 for the Pistons, a closely contested game is expected, leading to more minutes for Champagnie and potential for increased scoring.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown a recent trend of increasing minutes, playing 29+ minutes in three of his last five games, which correlates with increased scoring opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, creating a competitive atmosphere that will likely result in starters receiving significant minutes, thus boosting Champagnie's scoring chances.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: source_url_1, source_url_2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has an average of only 12.2 points per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the 19.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive record, currently positioned as the 2nd seed, implying they can limit opposing players' scoring, particularly against less established scorers like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be closely contested given the small spread of 1.5, which could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Champagnie if he doesn't play a pivotal role.
→TREND: Champagnie has not exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last five games, reinforcing a trend of underperformance relative to this points total.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak and have no significant injuries, likely resulting in a tight game where scoring opportunities may be distributed less favorably for Champagnie.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available

+1100+37.5% EV

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