Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Luke Kornet Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+475— stable

player points alternate

Luke Kornet Over 9.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+475— stable

player points alternate

34.10

Composite Score

+4.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

23.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is that the game will unfold in a competitive manner, with both teams likely to play their starters significant minutes, limiting Kornet's scoring opportunities. While the pro agent points to Kornet's recent performance exceeding 9.5 points and favorable matchup against the Pistons, the anti agent highlights his overall season average and potential for restricted minutes in a close game scenario. Given the balanced Net EV (0.05), indicating slight value but also reflecting the conflicting trends in evidence, this wager is not compelling enough to pursue.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet has been averaging 10.2 points per game over the last 5 games, which is above the 9.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are allowing a higher point total to opposing centers in recent games, which is favorable for Kornet's scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring environment that could facilitate Kornet exceeding 9.5 points.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the San Antonio Spurs, Kornet has recorded points greater than 9.5, showing positive historical performance against this team.
→SITUATIONAL: Kornet has been playing more minutes recently, averaging nearly 25 minutes over the last five games, which correlates with increased scoring potential.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet has a season average of only 6.0 points per game, significantly below the 9.5 points threshold he needs to exceed based on his usual performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are among the top teams, leading to tougher defensive matchups for Kornet, which may limit his scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is only 1.5 in favor of Detroit, the game is likely to be competitive and close, which could restrict Kornet's minutes and scoring as both teams' starters play significant minutes.
→TREND: In his last five games, Kornet scored over 9.5 points only once, showcasing inconsistency in surpassing this point total regularly.
→SITUATIONAL: With DC load management not indicated, it’s crucial to note that his average of 18.6 minutes per game also suggests limited exposure and scoring opportunities, especially in a game expected to be high-pressure.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Luke Kornet has been averaging 10.2 points per game over the last 5 games, which is above the 9.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are allowing a higher point total to opposing centers in recent games, which is favorable for Kornet's scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring environment that could facilitate Kornet exceeding 9.5 points.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the San Antonio Spurs, Kornet has recorded points greater than 9.5, showing positive historical performance against this team.
→SITUATIONAL: Kornet has been playing more minutes recently, averaging nearly 25 minutes over the last five games, which correlates with increased scoring potential.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

+1100+37.5% EV

Luke Kornet Over 9.5 rebounds alternate💤

+775+32.9% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1260+17.4% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1700+16.8% EV