Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+407↓194%|+838

player points assists alternate

Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+407↓194%|+838

player points assists alternate

61.10

Composite Score

+25.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Dylan Harper Over 19.5 points and assists makes sense due to the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with a total set at 232.5. The Detroit Pistons' current high-paced gameplay and their winning streak indicate more possessions and opportunities for Harper to rack up both points and assists, despite his average of 3.2 assists per game. The strong Net EV of 0.25 suggests that the market is underpricing this bet, as Harper is likely to see extended minutes in a competitive match-up, boosting his potential output.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 3.2 assists per game over his last 5 games, showing he has the capability to consistently contribute in this stat category.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game winning streak and have a high-paced offensive style which could lead to more opportunities for assists for Harper throughout the game.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high total of 232.5, there is a strong likelihood for a high-scoring affair that typically provides more possessions and opportunities for players to exceed their averages.
→TREND: Harper's scoring average is 10.8 points per game, which indicates he is not only capable of scoring but also likely to draw defenders, potentially resulting in additional assists as he facilitates the offense.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs' recent performance of winning 8 straight games suggests they will be competitive, likely forcing Harper to play extended minutes, which boosts his chances of exceeding the 9.5 points and assists alternate.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN API

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper's verified average for assists is only 3.2 per game, which is significantly below the 9.5 threshold needed for this outcome.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently one of the top teams in the league with strong defensive metrics, making it difficult for Harper to generate assists against such a formidable opponent.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are highly competitive with a close spread, the game is likely to be closely contested rather than a run-and-gun affair that typically leads to higher assist totals.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Harper has not come close to the 9.5 assists mark, contributing only a total of 16 assists across those games, indicating a trend of underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: Harper's role might be limited due to matchup dynamics; if the game is tightly contested, he may not play extended minutes (as evidenced by his recent game where he logged only 16 minutes against San Antonio), reducing his opportunities to reach high assist totals.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 3.2 assists per game over his last 5 games, showing he has the capability to consistently contribute in this stat category.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 5-game winning streak and have a high-paced offensive style which could lead to more opportunities for assists for Harper throughout the game.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high total of 232.5, there is a strong likelihood for a high-scoring affair that typically provides more possessions and opportunities for players to exceed their averages.
→TREND: Harper's scoring average is 10.8 points per game, which indicates he is not only capable of scoring but also likely to draw defenders, potentially resulting in additional assists as he facilitates the offense.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs' recent performance of winning 8 straight games suggests they will be competitive, likely forcing Harper to play extended minutes, which boosts his chances of exceeding the 9.5 points and assists alternate.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN API

+710+76.8% EV

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