Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+120— stable

player assists

Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+120— stable

player assists

42.00

Composite Score

+8.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

44.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for a high-paced game due to the 232.5 total, which could lead to scoring but may not necessarily favor Duncan Robinson's assists, as he is primarily a scorer. His recent trend of averaging only 1.0 assists per game and performing below the threshold against a strong Spurs defense further supports the likelihood of him staying under 1.5 assists. The Net EV of 0.09 suggests a minor edge, but the balance of evidence does not strongly favor this bet, warranting a cautious approach.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, significantly below the threshold of 1.5 assists, suggesting he is unlikely to exceed this mark in the upcoming game.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive structure and rank highly in defensive efficiency, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to distribute the ball effectively, further decreasing his chances of reaching 2+ assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 expected for the game, the tempo could lead to a focus on scoring rather than playmaking, particularly for a player like Robinson who is more of a scorer than a facilitator.
→TREND: Robinson has consistently underperformed in terms of assists, recording 0 assists in three of his last five games, indicating a concerning trend that makes exceeding 1.5 assists unlikely.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that Robinson's minutes average 24.1 per game, and his recent performances have shown limited usage, he may not see the court enough or in favorable scenarios to generate enough assists in this particular matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's season averages of 2.4 assists per game indicate that reaching 1.5 assists is well within normal performance levels.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-paced offensive style as indicated by their 232.5 game total, which typically results in more possessions and opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, this game is expected to be closely contested, leading to Robinson likely playing 35-40 minutes potentially facilitating more assists.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson registered significant contributions with multiple assists, and his recent average assists per game of 1.0 are not reflective of his capabilities when given more minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: The back-to-back wins for the San Antonio Spurs suggest they are in good form, and with no reported injuries, the team dynamics will allow Robinson to potentially have a larger role and contribute more assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, significantly below the threshold of 1.5 assists, suggesting he is unlikely to exceed this mark in the upcoming game.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive structure and rank highly in defensive efficiency, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to distribute the ball effectively, further decreasing his chances of reaching 2+ assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 expected for the game, the tempo could lead to a focus on scoring rather than playmaking, particularly for a player like Robinson who is more of a scorer than a facilitator.
→TREND: Robinson has consistently underperformed in terms of assists, recording 0 assists in three of his last five games, indicating a concerning trend that makes exceeding 1.5 assists unlikely.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that Robinson's minutes average 24.1 per game, and his recent performances have shown limited usage, he may not see the court enough or in favorable scenarios to generate enough assists in this particular matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Related Wagers

Jalen Duren Under 1.5 assists🎯

+115+7.7% EV

Tobias Harris Under 1.5 assists🎯

+115+7.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Under 5.5 assists💤

+105+4.0% EV

Duncan Robinson Under 10.5 points💤

-105+3.9% EV

De'Aaron Fox Under 5.5 assists💤

+104+3.8% EV