Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Under 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player assists

Tobias Harris Under 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

+115— stable

player assists

39.60

Composite Score

+7.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

38.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup against the Spurs, Tobias Harris is likely to struggle with assists as the Spurs have a strong defensive presence that limits assist opportunities. The balance of competitive play will likely highlight scoring over facilitating, supporting the Under on his assists total. With a Net EV of 0.08, the market may be undervaluing his chances of falling short of 1.5 assists, especially given the trend of underperforming against tough defenses.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris averages 2.2 assists per game, but recent performances indicate some inconsistency, particularly given that his assists have been lower against tough defensive teams.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have shown strong defensive capabilities, particularly in limiting assists to opponents, which is likely to hinder Harris from reaching over 1.5 assists.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 232.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, yet the close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) indicates a competitive game, where individual players may focus more on scoring rather than facilitating assists.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, while Harris has averaged 2.2 assists, he has not consistently hit over 1.5 assists in games against strong defensive teams, which puts him at risk for underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this game may result in tighter minutes for non-primary ball handlers like Harris, as teams may rely heavily on their stars in critical situations, limiting his chances to distribute the ball.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris is averaging 2.2 assists per game, which means he is already exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold comfortably.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a high-paced playstyle that typically generates more possessions, leading to higher assist opportunities for players like Harris.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for the game, it suggests a high-scoring affair which often correlates with increased assisting as players move the ball to find open shots.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Harris has consistently shown an ability to provide assists, averaging 2.2 assists and hitting the over on this threshold multiple times.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams being in excellent recent form, the competitiveness of the game is likely to keep starters on the court longer, often leading to an increase in assists as key players engage in a close matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://espn.com, https://nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris averages 2.2 assists per game, but recent performances indicate some inconsistency, particularly given that his assists have been lower against tough defensive teams.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have shown strong defensive capabilities, particularly in limiting assists to opponents, which is likely to hinder Harris from reaching over 1.5 assists.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 232.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, yet the close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) indicates a competitive game, where individual players may focus more on scoring rather than facilitating assists.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, while Harris has averaged 2.2 assists, he has not consistently hit over 1.5 assists in games against strong defensive teams, which puts him at risk for underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this game may result in tighter minutes for non-primary ball handlers like Harris, as teams may rely heavily on their stars in critical situations, limiting his chances to distribute the ball.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

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