Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle Over 28.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+430↓130%|+1880

player points assists alternate

Stephon Castle Over 28.5 points assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+430↓130%|+1880

player points assists alternate

63.00

Composite Score

+34.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Stephon Castle going Over 28.5 combined points and assists makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with the total set at 232.5. Castle's recent performance shows a strong average of 16.6 points and 6.4 assists, indicating significant contributions in both areas. The Net EV of 0.35 suggests that the market may have undervalued this prop, aligning with the narrative that Castle will have ample opportunities to excel against a Spurs defense that is vulnerable to perimeter players.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle is averaging 16.6 points over his last five games and has recorded 6.4 assists per game, indicating he consistently contributes in both scoring and facilitating plays.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the San Antonio Spurs is favorable for Castle, as they have shown susceptibility to perimeter players, which could lead to increased scoring opportunities for him.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of this game suggests that players like Castle will have ample opportunity to both score and assist, pushing him past the 12.5 threshold.
→TREND: Castle's scoring has been trending upwards, given he has not only hit 16.6 points per game recently but has also maintained a solid shooting percentage of 42.8%, optimizing his potential to exceed combined points and assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The game spread is close at Detroit Pistons -1.5, which typically results in competitive and closely contested games, implying that Castle is likely to play heavy minutes (26.7 avg) and have more chances to contribute significantly.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: While Stephon Castle averaged 6.4 assists in the last five games, his high assists total can obscure the reality that reaching over 12.5 points assists heavily depends on the scoring opportunities created, which may not remain consistent against Detroit's strong defense.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a solid defensive unit that could limit Castle's ability to both score and distribute effectively. With the Pistons ranking high in overall defense, they pose a significant challenge to his point and assist totals.
→NARRATIVE: The game script is likely to favor a competitive matchup, leading to a closer contest that may not allow for more possessions or scoring opportunities, resulting in fewer combined assists and points for both teams, including Castle.
→TREND: In his last appearance against the San Antonio Spurs, Castle played 27 minutes and managed only 0.0 assists, illustrating that he can struggle to contribute when facing strong defensive setups, suggesting his current form may not translate into exceeding 12.5 combined assists and points.
→SITUATIONAL: With the game being tight (spread indicating a close game) and both teams vying for playoff positioning, it's possible that starters could face reduced minutes in favor of strategic adjustments, which would negatively impact Castle's opportunity to exceed the 12.5 point assists threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle is averaging 16.6 points over his last five games and has recorded 6.4 assists per game, indicating he consistently contributes in both scoring and facilitating plays.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the San Antonio Spurs is favorable for Castle, as they have shown susceptibility to perimeter players, which could lead to increased scoring opportunities for him.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of this game suggests that players like Castle will have ample opportunity to both score and assist, pushing him past the 12.5 threshold.
→TREND: Castle's scoring has been trending upwards, given he has not only hit 16.6 points per game recently but has also maintained a solid shooting percentage of 42.8%, optimizing his potential to exceed combined points and assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The game spread is close at Detroit Pistons -1.5, which typically results in competitive and closely contested games, implying that Castle is likely to play heavy minutes (26.7 avg) and have more chances to contribute significantly.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+710+76.8% EV

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