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Keldon Johnson Under 14.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-340↑217%|-630

player points alternate

Keldon Johnson Under 14.5 points alternate

🧠 Conviction Bet

-340↑217%|-630

player points alternate

36.10

Composite Score

+3.1%

Net EV

65.00

Narrative Fit

4.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for Keldon Johnson to struggle to reach 14.5 points against the Pistons' strong defense and given his recent scoring average of only 11.8 points over the last five games. While the game total is projected high at 232.5, the narrative suggests a distribution of scoring that could limit Johnson's opportunities. The slight positive Net EV of 0.03 indicates potential value in this bet, supported by the evidence of Johnson's recent performance and limited minutes.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson's average points per game is only 12.7 for the season, significantly below the threshold of 19.5 points, indicating he typically struggles to reach higher scoring totals.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, a team with a strong defensive reputation this season, which may limit Johnson's scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected high total of 232.5, the game might see a variety of scoring from multiple sources, diluting the number of points any single player might score, including Johnson.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Johnson has only averaged 11.8 points, consistently underperforming relative to the 19.5 point mark, suggesting ongoing struggles with scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: Johnson averages only 23.9 minutes of playtime per game, which may not provide him enough opportunities to accumulate points, particularly in a match against a competitive Pistons squad.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has averaged 11.8 points over his last five games, but with a higher FG% of 48.2% and consistent attempts, he could enhance his scoring rate, especially given his previous performance against weaker defenses.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow a considerable number of points to opposing forwards, which could give Johnson the opportunity to exploit mismatches and increase his scoring chances.
→NARRATIVE: The game context features a high total of 232.5, suggesting a fast-paced and high-scoring game, which favors Johnson in accumulating points more easily than usual.
→TREND: Johnson has shown an increasing involvement in recent games, especially evident in his rebound average of 6.2, which signals that he's becoming more active on the court, potentially leading to higher scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, providing them momentum and confidence, which may lead to a more aggressive offensive strategy where Johnson could see more opportunities to score.

Thesis: moderate

Market: disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson's average points per game is only 12.7 for the season, significantly below the threshold of 19.5 points, indicating he typically struggles to reach higher scoring totals.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, a team with a strong defensive reputation this season, which may limit Johnson's scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected high total of 232.5, the game might see a variety of scoring from multiple sources, diluting the number of points any single player might score, including Johnson.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Johnson has only averaged 11.8 points, consistently underperforming relative to the 19.5 point mark, suggesting ongoing struggles with scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: Johnson averages only 23.9 minutes of playtime per game, which may not provide him enough opportunities to accumulate points, particularly in a match against a competitive Pistons squad.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

+1100+37.5% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Harrison Barnes Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1260+17.4% EV

Devin Vassell Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1700+16.8% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 17.5 points alternate💤

+1000+16.4% EV