Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Khris Middleton Under 17.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-117— stable
player points assists
Khris Middleton Under 17.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-117— stable
player points assists
27.90
Composite Score
+5.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
23.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Grizzlies and Mavericks, the expectation for Khris Middleton to exceed 17.5 points and assists is tempered by his significant underperformance lately and limited playing time averaging just over 21 minutes. Although the game has a high projected total which typically favors offensive outputs, the Grizzlies' strong defense against wings could hinder Middleton's opportunities. With a Net EV of 0.06 indicating only a slight edge, the combination of these factors suggests that this wager lacks strong conviction, making it a better option to pass on.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Khris Middleton's recent statistics indicate he is averaging only 7.0 points and 2.6 assists over the last 5 games, totaling just 9.6 points and assists combined, significantly under 17.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a strong defensive reputation, particularly against wings, which could limit Middleton's scoring and playmaking opportunities in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to have a total of 238.5, it suggests a fast pace, but this could lead to increased competition for touches, meaning Middleton may not get sufficient opportunities to reach 17.5 total points and assists.
- →TREND: Middleton has consistently underperformed in terms of scoring and assists, failing to break double digits in points in 4 out of his last 5 games, showing a downward trend in offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: Middleton is averaging just 21.2 minutes per game recently, which significantly limits his potential to exceed the 17.5 threshold, especially if he faces any load management or game script limitations.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: authoritative stats, game context features
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Khris Middleton's recent averages include only 7.0 points and 2.6 assists over the last 5 games, which is under the 17.5 threshold. However, his FG% of 37.6% indicates he may not be fully in rhythm, but he can elevate his performance on a better shooting night.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have struggled defensively, allowing a high number of points to opposing forwards. This sets up an advantageous matchup for Middleton to capitalize on a weaker defensive unit.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 238.5, suggesting a high-paced, high-scoring affair is expected. Such dynamics typically lead to increased opportunities for scoring and assists, potentially helping Middleton exceed the 17.5 points plus assists threshold.
- →TREND: Despite recent struggles, Middleton has historically performed well in high-scoring games. If he can increase his minutes slightly above 22.8 as he had in some earlier games this season, he could easily hit the over on 17.5 points and assists combined.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are on losing streaks, which typically adds intensity to the game. A close contest may lead to starters like Middleton receiving more minutes, increasing his chance to reach the 17.5 mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Khris Middleton's recent statistics indicate he is averaging only 7.0 points and 2.6 assists over the last 5 games, totaling just 9.6 points and assists combined, significantly under 17.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies have a strong defensive reputation, particularly against wings, which could limit Middleton's scoring and playmaking opportunities in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to have a total of 238.5, it suggests a fast pace, but this could lead to increased competition for touches, meaning Middleton may not get sufficient opportunities to reach 17.5 total points and assists.
- →TREND: Middleton has consistently underperformed in terms of scoring and assists, failing to break double digits in points in 4 out of his last 5 games, showing a downward trend in offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: Middleton is averaging just 21.2 minutes per game recently, which significantly limits his potential to exceed the 17.5 threshold, especially if he faces any load management or game script limitations.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: authoritative stats, game context features
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available