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Bobby Portis double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+750— stable
player double double
Bobby Portis double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+750— stable
player double double
45.10
Composite Score
+1.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
6.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The projected game script indicates a competitive matchup, but both agents present valid concerns that lead to a balanced narrative around the wager on Portis achieving a double-double. Although there is potential for increased volume given his recent averages and the opponent's defensive struggles, the significant underperformance in his recent games and the Knicks' strong defense against forwards raises doubts about reaching the required thresholds. The Net EV of 0.02 suggests only a slight edge, which is not sufficient to confidently back this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis averages 8.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists this season, nearing double-double status with just a few assists needed to complement his rebounding totals.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have struggled defensively against forwards this season, allowing increased scoring and rebounding opportunities for opposing players like Portis.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a significant margin (+8.5), higher volume shooting opportunities may lead to more accumulated boards and assists as Portis could see extended minutes if the game remains competitive.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Portis has consistently averaged 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists, showing he is well within range for a double-double if he increases his minutes and can capitalize on more possessions.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are on a two-game winning streak and will be playing at home, which often boosts performance metrics for players due to familiar settings and support from local fans.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 88%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis's recent averages show he is currently at 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game over the last five games, indicating he has not been close to achieving a double-double, which requires him to significantly exceed those averages.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the New York Knicks is challenging for Portis, as they rank among the top defensive teams. Their ability to limit interior scoring and control rebounding will likely hinder Portis's chances of reaching double-digit stats in both categories.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread heavily favoring the Knicks at +8.5, the game script is likely to lead to reduced playing time for Portis if Milwaukee falls behind, limiting opportunities for him to accumulate points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Portis has failed to achieve a double-double, with his highest rebound total being only 9 and only hitting double-digit rebounds once in this time frame, showcasing a clear underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the Bucks are coming into the game with a down record of 26-31 and only recently finding some momentum with a two-game winning streak, there might be an increased likelihood of minutes being managed for depth players like Portis to prepare for upcoming critical games.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Bobby Portis averages 8.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists this season, nearing double-double status with just a few assists needed to complement his rebounding totals.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have struggled defensively against forwards this season, allowing increased scoring and rebounding opportunities for opposing players like Portis.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a significant margin (+8.5), higher volume shooting opportunities may lead to more accumulated boards and assists as Portis could see extended minutes if the game remains competitive.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Portis has consistently averaged 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists, showing he is well within range for a double-double if he increases his minutes and can capitalize on more possessions.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are on a two-game winning streak and will be playing at home, which often boosts performance metrics for players due to familiar settings and support from local fans.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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