Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Mitchell Robinson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+650— stable
player double double
Mitchell Robinson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+650— stable
player double double
44.50
Composite Score
+53.9%
Net EV
35.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the matchup between the Knicks and Bucks, there are strong opposing narratives about Robinson's performance potential. While he plays for a team in a competitive situation that may lead to extended minutes, his recent stats with only 2.4 points per game make achieving a double-double difficult against a top defensive team like the Bucks. The Net EV score of 0.54 reflects slight value; however, the evidence heavily favors a negative outcome for this specific bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Mitchell Robinson has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game, narrowly missing the double-double mark, and he has shown a capacity for grabbing offensive rebounds, recently averaging 4.8 offensive boards, which could boost his statistics significantly.
- →MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank among the higher pace teams in the league, suggesting that there will be more possessions and scoring opportunities, benefiting Robinson's chances of achieving a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of +8.5 for the Bucks suggests a potentially competitive game, leading to extended minutes for starters like Robinson, who has the opportunity to accumulate stats effectively throughout the game.
- →TREND: Robinson's recent trend shows an increase in minutes per game, climbing to 21.0 in the last 5, which directly correlates with higher potential for both rebounds and points, edging him closer to a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Knicks currently occupy a strong playoff position and face a lower-seeded Bucks team, there is an emphasis on winning and maximizing player performance, further motivating Robinson to deliver a strong game in terms of stats.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson's recent stats show he is averaging only 2.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game over his last five games, meaning he is significantly below the double-double threshold of 10 points and 10 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are ranked among the top defensive teams in the league, which may limit Robinson's ability to score and secure rebounds. Their defensive prowess could lead to a tougher matchup for him in the paint.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of +8.5 suggests that the Bucks may struggle to keep the game close, potentially resulting in Robinson being pulled early if the game becomes a blowout, thereby limiting his minutes and opportunity to achieve a double-double.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Robinson has failed to score in double figures in points during all of these games, indicating a concerning pattern in his production that likely continues into this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Robinson's average of 21.0 minutes played in his last five games, coupled with the potential for load management or reduced minutes due to game flow, hampers his chances of accumulating the necessary statistics for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Mitchell Robinson has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game, narrowly missing the double-double mark, and he has shown a capacity for grabbing offensive rebounds, recently averaging 4.8 offensive boards, which could boost his statistics significantly.
- →MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank among the higher pace teams in the league, suggesting that there will be more possessions and scoring opportunities, benefiting Robinson's chances of achieving a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of +8.5 for the Bucks suggests a potentially competitive game, leading to extended minutes for starters like Robinson, who has the opportunity to accumulate stats effectively throughout the game.
- →TREND: Robinson's recent trend shows an increase in minutes per game, climbing to 21.0 in the last 5, which directly correlates with higher potential for both rebounds and points, edging him closer to a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Knicks currently occupy a strong playoff position and face a lower-seeded Bucks team, there is an emphasis on winning and maximizing player performance, further motivating Robinson to deliver a strong game in terms of stats.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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