Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Josh Hart double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+400— stable
player double double
Josh Hart double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+400— stable
player double double
37.00
Composite Score
-1.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
3.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on Josh Hart achieving a double-double appears unwise given the current evidence. While Hart has the potential to secure rebounds and assists, the strong defensive presence of the Bucks and his recent trend of underperformance in accumulating double-digit stats heavily weigh against this wager. The Net EV of -0.01 reflects this reality, indicating that the market pricing is accurate considering the combined factors of matchup difficulty and Hart's role within a potentially tight game context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart is averaging 9.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game this season, putting him close to the double-double threshold, particularly in rebounding, where he often hits double figures.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks struggle against strong rebounding guards, and Hart's capability to snag boards against them could increase his odds for a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 8.5, the game is expected to be competitive, which means starters will get extended minutes; Hart's heavy usage in close contests bodes well for hitting double digits in both rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Josh Hart has demonstrated an upward trend in scoring and rebounding, peaking with a 12-rebound game against the Knicks, showcasing his potential to replicate that in this match.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams driving for playoff spots, Hart's role will be crucial in a tightly contested game, as the Knicks need his contributions for success, elevating the likelihood for him to accumulate a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart has averaged only 7.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game over the last 5 games, indicating he is struggling to reach double-digit totals in either category consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have one of the strongest frontcourts defensively, with multiple players capable of dominating the boards, making it difficult for Hart to secure the rebounds necessary for a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of 8.5 favoring Milwaukee, this indicates a strong possibility of a blowout, which would likely lead to Hart's minutes being reduced in garbage time and lower his chances for accumulating double-digit stats.
- →TREND: Hart has not managed to achieve a double-double in any of his last 5 games, reflecting a trend of underperformance in terms of accumulating both points and assists or rebounds.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are on the road and coming off a loss, which often leads to tighter rotations and potentially less freedom for players like Hart, who may not get the same opportunities to rack up stats as they would at home in favorable situations.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart is averaging 9.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game this season, putting him close to the double-double threshold, particularly in rebounding, where he often hits double figures.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks struggle against strong rebounding guards, and Hart's capability to snag boards against them could increase his odds for a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 8.5, the game is expected to be competitive, which means starters will get extended minutes; Hart's heavy usage in close contests bodes well for hitting double digits in both rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Josh Hart has demonstrated an upward trend in scoring and rebounding, peaking with a 12-rebound game against the Knicks, showcasing his potential to replicate that in this match.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams driving for playoff spots, Hart's role will be crucial in a tightly contested game, as the Knicks need his contributions for success, elevating the likelihood for him to accumulate a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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