Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Neemias Queta Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2400↓1537%|+2567
player assists alternate
Neemias Queta Over 5.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2400↓1537%|+2567
player assists alternate
50.50
Composite Score
+41.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
While Neemias Queta shows a potential for increased playmaking opportunities against a struggling Brooklyn Nets defense, his current assist average of 0.7 suggests it's unlikely he can surpass the 5.5 assists mark, especially given that the Nets may limit offensive possessions in a potential blowout scenario. The Net EV of 0.42 does hint at some value, but the risk is heightened due to the possibility of reduced playtime and offensive struggles, making this a wager best avoided for now.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Neemias Queta has averaged 2.0 assists over his last 5 games, which indicates he can exceed the 1.5 assists threshold given his increased role and usage lately.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling, currently on a six-game losing streak and ranked 14th in the playoff standings, which can lead to increased playmaking opportunities for Queta against a beleaguered defense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that Boston is heavily favored in this matchup (spread of Boston Celtics -18.0), it’s likely that Queta will have extended minutes in a game where he may need to step up to facilitate scoring opportunities as they try to close a sizeable gap.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Queta has shown significant improvement in his production, with averages of 9.2 points and 7.4 rebounds, alongside his assists stat trending upward, making it reasonable to expect at least 2 assists as part of his contributions.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and the total set at 209.5, this high total suggests a more offensive game which usually correlates to players like Queta finding enough opportunities to facilitate assists, thus enhancing his odds to surpass the 1.5 assists mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Neemias Queta averages only 0.7 assists per game this season, which is significantly below the 1.5 assists threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of exceeding this number.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are facing the Boston Celtics, a strong defensive team that may restrict Queta's opportunities to create assists, especially with their focus on key offensive players.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -18 in favor of the Celtics, this game is likely to be a blowout, which often results in lower playtime and fewer opportunities for the bench players like Queta to contribute significantly.
- →TREND: In his recent performances, Queta has only exceeded 1.5 assists once in the last five games, which shows an inconsistency in his ability to generate assists routinely.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are currently on a six-game losing streak and struggling offensively, which could contribute to fewer overall possessions and thus less chance for Queta to hit the assist mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Neemias Queta has averaged 2.0 assists over his last 5 games, which indicates he can exceed the 1.5 assists threshold given his increased role and usage lately.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling, currently on a six-game losing streak and ranked 14th in the playoff standings, which can lead to increased playmaking opportunities for Queta against a beleaguered defense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that Boston is heavily favored in this matchup (spread of Boston Celtics -18.0), it’s likely that Queta will have extended minutes in a game where he may need to step up to facilitate scoring opportunities as they try to close a sizeable gap.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Queta has shown significant improvement in his production, with averages of 9.2 points and 7.4 rebounds, alongside his assists stat trending upward, making it reasonable to expect at least 2 assists as part of his contributions.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and the total set at 209.5, this high total suggests a more offensive game which usually correlates to players like Queta finding enough opportunities to facilitate assists, thus enhancing his odds to surpass the 1.5 assists mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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