Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Jaylon Tyson Under 13.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-111↓13%|+16

player points

Jaylon Tyson Under 13.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-111↓13%|+16

player points

29.60

Composite Score

+7.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup between the Cavaliers and Pistons, the expected narrative centers on a lower-scoring game due to the strength of the Cavaliers' defense, particularly against players like Tyson who have historically struggled in these situations. Tyson's recent trend of averaging only 11.8 points over his last five games aligns with the expected outcome, reinforcing the idea that he will likely fall short of the 13.5 points threshold. The Net EV of 0.07 suggests that this bet is underpriced by the market, making it a solid option given the evidence presented.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Jaylon Tyson has averaged only 11.8 points in his last 5 games, falling short of the 13.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are among the league's better defensive teams, making it harder for Tyson to score; he has struggled against them previously, averaging less than 10 points in multiple matchups.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected total of 227.5, this game still skews towards a lower scoring environment which can hinder the ability for individual players like Tyson to exceed their scoring averages.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Tyson has consistently failed to exceed 13.5 points, with only a max of 13 points noted in this stretch, indicating a persistent underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: Tyson's increased minutes recently (28.8 minutes per game) do not correlate with scoring output, as his scoring efficiency in those minutes remains low against a strong Pistons team.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Jaylon Tyson has averaged 11.8 points in his last 5 games, showing a trajectory close to the threshold of 13.5 points while increasing his minutes to an average of 28.8.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are contending for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, which could lead to a competitive game where Tyson has ample opportunity to score against a high-paced and scoring team.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 227.5 and the spread of -5.5, a high-scoring game is expected, allowing for increased scoring opportunities for Tyson.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Tyson's shooting percentage has improved to 45.2%, suggesting he is currently in better form and capable of scoring effectively.
→SITUATIONAL: The fact that the Detroit Pistons are on a winning streak and facing the second-half playoff push may mean Tyson will see heavy usage as the team looks to keep the pace and winning momentum.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Jaylon Tyson has averaged only 11.8 points in his last 5 games, falling short of the 13.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are among the league's better defensive teams, making it harder for Tyson to score; he has struggled against them previously, averaging less than 10 points in multiple matchups.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected total of 227.5, this game still skews towards a lower scoring environment which can hinder the ability for individual players like Tyson to exceed their scoring averages.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Tyson has consistently failed to exceed 13.5 points, with only a max of 13 points noted in this stretch, indicating a persistent underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: Tyson's increased minutes recently (28.8 minutes per game) do not correlate with scoring output, as his scoring efficiency in those minutes remains low against a strong Pistons team.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com