Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Evan Mobley Over 7.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+105↓184%|+230

player rebounds

Evan Mobley Over 7.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+105↓184%|+230

player rebounds

29.30

Composite Score

+7.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

I recommend betting on Evan Mobley to go Over 7.5 rebounds because of the expected fast pace of the game and Mobley's proven ability to exceed this threshold, averaging 9.6 rebounds over his last five games. The matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who rank among the bottom teams in rebounding differential, presents Mobley with ample opportunities to secure boards. With a Net EV of 0.07, the evidence suggests this bet is underpriced, making it a valuable opportunity given the game context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Evan Mobley has averaged 9.6 rebounds over his last 5 games, consistently exceeding the 7.5 rebound threshold, indicating strong recent performance in rebounding.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked among the league's bottom teams in rebounding differential, which should give Mobley more opportunities to secure boards against their frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 227.5 suggests a fast-paced contest, increasing the number of possessions and the likelihood of more rebounding opportunities for Mobley.
→TREND: Mobley has achieved 10+ rebounds in three out of his last five games, demonstrating his ability to perform well above the 7.5 mark against various opponents.
→SITUATIONAL: As a key player for the Cavaliers, Mobley is expected to play around 33-35 minutes given the competitive nature of the matchup against the top-seeded Pistons, which correlates with higher rebounding totals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Evan Mobley's average rebounds per game over the last 5 games is 9.6, but his performance against weaker opposing frontcourts shows inconsistency, especially seen in the game against the Indiana Pacers where he only grabbed 5 rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong frontline that includes skilled rebounders, which will likely limit Mobley’s effectiveness on the boards and contribute to a lower rebounding total.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 227.5, suggesting fast-paced play, which often leads to fewer opportunities for defensive rebounds, potentially causing Mobley to struggle in exceeding the threshold.
→TREND: Mobley's rebounding numbers have fluctuated widely; in the last five games, he has recorded two games with fewer than 7 rebounds, indicating potential underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a losing streak and may not be playing at their best, which could lead to blowout conditions where Mobley’s minutes could be reduced and limit his rebounding opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Evan Mobley has averaged 9.6 rebounds over his last 5 games, consistently exceeding the 7.5 rebound threshold, indicating strong recent performance in rebounding.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked among the league's bottom teams in rebounding differential, which should give Mobley more opportunities to secure boards against their frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 227.5 suggests a fast-paced contest, increasing the number of possessions and the likelihood of more rebounding opportunities for Mobley.
→TREND: Mobley has achieved 10+ rebounds in three out of his last five games, demonstrating his ability to perform well above the 7.5 mark against various opponents.
→SITUATIONAL: As a key player for the Cavaliers, Mobley is expected to play around 33-35 minutes given the competitive nature of the matchup against the top-seeded Pistons, which correlates with higher rebounding totals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com