Amen Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-101— stable

player steals

Amen Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-101— stable

player steals

35.40

Composite Score

+5.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

27.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The projected game script suggests a blowout in favor of the Houston Rockets, which could lead to reduced minutes for Amen Thompson and consequently fewer opportunities for steals. While the Pro analysis highlights Thompson's current averages and the Utah Jazz's efficient offense limiting steal chances, the Anti analysis presents valid points regarding potential high pace and turnover opportunities that could favor Thompson's steal totals. However, with a Net EV of only 0.05, the market isn’t significantly mispricing this wager, making it a less enticing option.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson's season average for steals is 1.4, which is below the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has not consistently achieved this mark on average.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a relatively high offensive efficiency, which might limit Thompson's steal opportunities as they can effectively execute plays without turnovers.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests a potential blowout game scenario where starters, including Thompson, might see reduced minutes due to the game being decided early.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has only exceeded 1 steal in two games, showing inconsistency in his ability to reach the proposed target of 1.5 steals.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are projected to win big, if they establish a lead quickly, Thompson's role may diminish, leading to fewer opportunities to achieve steals as the game progresses.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 1.4 steals per game this season, and in his last five games, he recorded 2 or more steals in two different matchups. This suggests he is capable of reaching 2 steals often when the game situation is favorable.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently favored by 13.5 points against a struggling Utah Jazz team. A large spread typically means the Rockets will play aggressively, leading to more defensive opportunities for Thompson against a turnover-prone opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With the total set at 228.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which often results in increased pace and more possessions. This scenario provides Thompson with more opportunities to create steals, enhancing his likelihood of exceeding 1.5 steals.
→TREND: In the most recent matchup against the Houston Rockets, Thompson recorded 1 steal. However, given the game was competitive and with several high-minutes games, he has shown potential to break out in terms of steals during decisive moments, suggesting upward statistical movement.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have played very recently, and the added fatigue on the opposing team's ball-handlers from the Jazz may lead to careless play. With Thompson averaging nearly 32.2 minutes per game, he’ll be on the floor for extended periods to capitalize on these situations.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson's season average for steals is 1.4, which is below the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has not consistently achieved this mark on average.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a relatively high offensive efficiency, which might limit Thompson's steal opportunities as they can effectively execute plays without turnovers.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests a potential blowout game scenario where starters, including Thompson, might see reduced minutes due to the game being decided early.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has only exceeded 1 steal in two games, showing inconsistency in his ability to reach the proposed target of 1.5 steals.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are projected to win big, if they establish a lead quickly, Thompson's role may diminish, leading to fewer opportunities to achieve steals as the game progresses.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2