Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Under 0.5 blocks
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player blocks
Amen Thompson Under 0.5 blocks
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player blocks
30.70
Composite Score
+3.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
14.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The matchup between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets suggests a slower-paced game, which tends to limit overall shot opportunities, including blocks. Amen Thompson’s average of 1.3 blocks is offset by a recent trend of limited defensive chances against a struggling Jazz team and potential early game exit due to a large spread (-13.5). With the Net EV at just 0.03, the odds don't reflect a strong enough edge to confidently wager on the Under for blocks.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent performances show he only averaged 0.6 blocks in the last five games, which suggests a likelihood of staying under the 0.5 threshold in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz generally play at a slow pace, which can lead to fewer overall shot attempts and opportunities for blocks compared to faster-paced teams, making it difficult for Thompson to exceed 0.5 blocks.
- →NARRATIVE: With a significant spread of -13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, this game could turn into a blowout, leading to Thompson potentially being pulled early, thus limiting his chances to record blocks.
- →TREND: In Thompson's last outing against the Rockets, he had 0 blocks, indicating a lack of success against this specific team, which could be a trend that continues.
- →SITUATIONAL: Amen Thompson is playing a strong team with a good record (34-21); given their position and recent form, the Rockets may control the game, resulting in fewer defensive opportunities for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has an impressive average of 1.3 blocks per game over the season, demonstrating his capability to exceed the 0.5 block mark consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's current standing with a record of 18-39 indicates they are struggling, which often leads to more defensive opportunities for opponents like Thompson to capitalize on blocks.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script is likely to facilitate more aggressive defensive play from the Rockets, increasing the probability of Thompson getting at least one block during the match.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson recorded two games with multiple blocks, including a performance against the Denver Nuggets where he achieved 2 blocks, indicating he is in form and capable of exceeding 0.5 blocks.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets' position as a playoff contender and the competitive nature of this matchup, Thompson is expected to play significant minutes (32.2 average), giving him ample opportunity to achieve the block number.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/..., https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/uta/utah-jazz
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent performances show he only averaged 0.6 blocks in the last five games, which suggests a likelihood of staying under the 0.5 threshold in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz generally play at a slow pace, which can lead to fewer overall shot attempts and opportunities for blocks compared to faster-paced teams, making it difficult for Thompson to exceed 0.5 blocks.
- →NARRATIVE: With a significant spread of -13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, this game could turn into a blowout, leading to Thompson potentially being pulled early, thus limiting his chances to record blocks.
- →TREND: In Thompson's last outing against the Rockets, he had 0 blocks, indicating a lack of success against this specific team, which could be a trend that continues.
- →SITUATIONAL: Amen Thompson is playing a strong team with a good record (34-21); given their position and recent form, the Rockets may control the game, resulting in fewer defensive opportunities for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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