Amen Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-108— stable

player steals

Amen Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-108— stable

player steals

32.70

Composite Score

+4.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

20.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The anticipated game script suggests a potential blowout for the Houston Rockets against the Utah Jazz, which could limit Amen Thompson's minutes and steal opportunities. Although Thompson's season average of 1.4 steals is slightly below the 1.5 threshold, both agents present compelling arguments on either side, leading to a narrow Net EV of 0.04 that indicates the wager is fairly priced rather than underpriced. Given the balance in evidence and the game narrative, this bet carries too much uncertainty to confidently pursue.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson's season average for steals is 1.4, which is below the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has not consistently achieved this mark on average.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a relatively high offensive efficiency, which might limit Thompson's steal opportunities as they can effectively execute plays without turnovers.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests a potential blowout game scenario where starters, including Thompson, might see reduced minutes due to the game being decided early.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has only exceeded 1 steal in two games, showing inconsistency in his ability to reach the proposed target of 1.5 steals.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are projected to win big, if they establish a lead quickly, Thompson's role may diminish, leading to fewer opportunities to achieve steals as the game progresses.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 1.4 steals per game this season, and in his last five games, he recorded 2 or more steals in two different matchups. This suggests he is capable of reaching 2 steals often when the game situation is favorable.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently favored by 13.5 points against a struggling Utah Jazz team. A large spread typically means the Rockets will play aggressively, leading to more defensive opportunities for Thompson against a turnover-prone opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With the total set at 228.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which often results in increased pace and more possessions. This scenario provides Thompson with more opportunities to create steals, enhancing his likelihood of exceeding 1.5 steals.
→TREND: In the most recent matchup against the Houston Rockets, Thompson recorded 1 steal. However, given the game was competitive and with several high-minutes games, he has shown potential to break out in terms of steals during decisive moments, suggesting upward statistical movement.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have played very recently, and the added fatigue on the opposing team's ball-handlers from the Jazz may lead to careless play. With Thompson averaging nearly 32.2 minutes per game, he’ll be on the floor for extended periods to capitalize on these situations.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson's season average for steals is 1.4, which is below the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has not consistently achieved this mark on average.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a relatively high offensive efficiency, which might limit Thompson's steal opportunities as they can effectively execute plays without turnovers.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests a potential blowout game scenario where starters, including Thompson, might see reduced minutes due to the game being decided early.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson has only exceeded 1 steal in two games, showing inconsistency in his ability to reach the proposed target of 1.5 steals.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are projected to win big, if they establish a lead quickly, Thompson's role may diminish, leading to fewer opportunities to achieve steals as the game progresses.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2