Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Under 22.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-118↓2%|+2
player points assists
Amen Thompson Under 22.5 points assists
💤 Noise Bet
-118↓2%|+2
player points assists
35.00
Composite Score
+5.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
26.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the close nature of the Net EV at 0.05, this bet lacks strong conviction. While Amen Thompson's recent performance suggests he can generate points and assists, the game narrative favors a Houston Rockets blowout, which could limit Thompson’s playing time and reduce his statistical output. Additionally, the Utah Jazz's defensive scheme is likely to put pressure on Thompson, making it challenging for him to exceed the 22.5 mark for combined points and assists.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging only 16.0 points in his last 5 games, falling short of the 22.5 combined points and assists mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a strong defensive scheme that could limit Thompson’s scoring opportunities, placing additional pressure on his assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, it’s likely that the game could become a blowout, leading to Thompson being pulled early, sabotaging his chances for accumulating points and assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson's assists average is 6.0, which combined with his points average fails to reach the 22.5 threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson's team has been struggling recently with a record of 18-39, possibly impacting his morale and minutes as the season wanes, against a stronger Rockets team.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's last 5 games show an average of 16.0 points and 6.0 assists per game, making his combined total 22.0, just shy of the threshold, indicating strong scoring and playmaking capabilities.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Utah Jazz, who have struggled defensively, allows for increased scoring opportunities, especially given their poor performance as evidenced by their 18-39 record.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, likely leading to more possessions and opportunities for Thompson to accumulate points and assists.
- →TREND: Amen Thompson's recent form shows improvement, as he has been averaging 16.0 points and notably increased his assist numbers to 6.0 per game in his last 5 outings.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored with a spread of -13.5, suggesting that they will control the game pace; if they maintain this dominance, Thompson will have increased court time and ball handling, facilitating higher stats overall.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging only 16.0 points in his last 5 games, falling short of the 22.5 combined points and assists mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a strong defensive scheme that could limit Thompson’s scoring opportunities, placing additional pressure on his assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, it’s likely that the game could become a blowout, leading to Thompson being pulled early, sabotaging his chances for accumulating points and assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson's assists average is 6.0, which combined with his points average fails to reach the 22.5 threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson's team has been struggling recently with a record of 18-39, possibly impacting his morale and minutes as the season wanes, against a stronger Rockets team.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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