Brice Sensabaugh Under 14.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-111↓6%|+7

player points assists

Brice Sensabaugh Under 14.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-111↓6%|+7

player points assists

37.10

Composite Score

+6.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

31.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While there is a slight positive EV on Sensabaugh's Under at 14.5 for combined points and assists, the expected high-scoring nature of the game and the potential for increased offensive opportunities could undermine the bet. Additionally, even though his recent averages significantly trail the threshold, the overall game context suggests there may be pathways for him to be more involved in an up-tempo matchup against a lower-tier defensive team. Thus, despite the positive EV assessment, the game's narrative makes this wager less reliable.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged only 6.6 points over his last five games, significantly below the 14.5 point threshold needed to exceed this outcome.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned as 13.5 point favorites, indicating a strong likelihood of a blowout which may limit Sensabaugh's playing time and scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high-scoring nature with a total of 228.5, it's likely that the stronger Rockets will dominate, pushing Sensabaugh's team into a less competitive position where he won't have the chance to score heavily.
→TREND: In the last five games, his average assists are just 1.8, which combined with his low point totals suggests he lacks the offensive involvement necessary to hit over 14.5 total points and assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are currently on a two-game losing streak and struggling overall, which could result in a limited role for Sensabaugh as the team adjusts its rotations or underperforms against a strong opponent like the Rockets.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged 1.8 assists per game over his last five games, indicating he is close to hitting the combined threshold of 14.5 points and assists.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have an up-tempo style of play, which could lead to more possessions and opportunities for Sensabaugh to accumulate both points and assists against a defensive unit ranked in the lower tier of the league.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 228.5, there is an expectation for a fast-paced and high-scoring game that aligns well with Sensabaugh's opportunity to exceed the combined total of 14.5.
→TREND: Sensabaugh's minutes have been fluctuating, but he has shown potential in higher minute games, like the 22 minutes played against the Brooklyn Nets, during which he had a more substantial impact.
→SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling with a record of 18-39 and are on a two-game losing streak, which may lead to an increased focus on younger players like Sensabaugh to progress as the season continues.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged only 6.6 points over his last five games, significantly below the 14.5 point threshold needed to exceed this outcome.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned as 13.5 point favorites, indicating a strong likelihood of a blowout which may limit Sensabaugh's playing time and scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high-scoring nature with a total of 228.5, it's likely that the stronger Rockets will dominate, pushing Sensabaugh's team into a less competitive position where he won't have the chance to score heavily.
→TREND: In the last five games, his average assists are just 1.8, which combined with his low point totals suggests he lacks the offensive involvement necessary to hit over 14.5 total points and assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are currently on a two-game losing streak and struggling overall, which could result in a limited role for Sensabaugh as the team adjusts its rotations or underperforms against a strong opponent like the Rockets.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory