Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+270— stable
player double double
Amen Thompson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+270— stable
player double double
44.10
Composite Score
+3.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
15.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Amen Thompson achieving a double-double doesn't have strong alignment with the expected game script, as the narrative suggests a likely blowout due to the spread of -13.5 for the Rockets, which could limit Thompson's minutes. Furthermore, both agents recognize that Thompson has not achieved a double-double recently and the risk of reduced playing time in a blowout significantly undermines his chances. The Net EV of 0.03 indicates a very slight edge, but the combination of a high winning margin for Houston and concerns about Thompson's recent performance leads me to recommend passing on this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is currently averaging 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, demonstrating the ability to fill multiple stat columns needed for a double-double. His points per game over this span is also 16.0, suggesting he can reach double digits in scoring.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, evident in their high spread of -13.5 against the Utah Jazz, indicate an expectation for a high-scoring game where Thompson will likely have increased opportunities to accumulate stats due to competitive pacing.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets being a strong playoff contender and the Jazz struggling significantly with a 18-39 record, the game script suggests a close battle, keeping Thompson on the court for extended minutes, which increases his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Thompson's recent trend shows improving performance, particularly in rebounds and assists, with multiple games where he has come close to, or exceeded, double digits in both categories, reinforcing his capability of achieving a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson's average of 32.2 minutes per game implies he plays a significant role in his team's offense, which is crucial for accumulating both points and assists. Additionally, a bounce-back opportunity coming from a recent loss adds to the momentum gearing toward a strong individual performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 72%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging 7.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists over the last 5 games, which indicates he is falling short of the 10+ benchmark needed for a double-double, particularly in the points category, where he only has 16.0 points per game recently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive rating and have been effective at limiting opposing guards, particularly in controlling assists and rebounds, making it difficult for Thompson to accumulate the necessary stats.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread indicates a large expected win margin for the Rockets (Houston Rockets -13.5), there’s a high risk of a blowout which could lead to reduced minutes for Thompson later in the game, hampering his chances of reaching a double-double.
- →TREND: Amen Thompson has not achieved a double-double in any of his last 5 games, demonstrating a consistent underperformance relative to the goal, highlighting doubts regarding his current form.
- →SITUATIONAL: The significant spread suggests that the Jazz may struggle to keep the game competitive, which could lead to Thompson being pulled from the game early due to garbage time, impacting his ability to gather the necessary statistics for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is currently averaging 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, demonstrating the ability to fill multiple stat columns needed for a double-double. His points per game over this span is also 16.0, suggesting he can reach double digits in scoring.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, evident in their high spread of -13.5 against the Utah Jazz, indicate an expectation for a high-scoring game where Thompson will likely have increased opportunities to accumulate stats due to competitive pacing.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets being a strong playoff contender and the Jazz struggling significantly with a 18-39 record, the game script suggests a close battle, keeping Thompson on the court for extended minutes, which increases his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Thompson's recent trend shows improving performance, particularly in rebounds and assists, with multiple games where he has come close to, or exceeded, double digits in both categories, reinforcing his capability of achieving a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson's average of 32.2 minutes per game implies he plays a significant role in his team's offense, which is crucial for accumulating both points and assists. Additionally, a bounce-back opportunity coming from a recent loss adds to the momentum gearing toward a strong individual performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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