Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey double double
💤 Noise Bet
+2800— stable
player double double
Ace Bailey double double
💤 Noise Bet
+2800— stable
player double double
43.10
Composite Score
+4.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
20.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The mismatch between Ace Bailey's recent averages and the double-double requirement is too significant to ignore, regardless of the high-scoring game context. While the matchup could favor an increase in player minutes, the likelihood of a blowout narrows his chances to accumulate the necessary stats to achieve the double-double. The Net EV of 0.04, while slightly positive, does not adequately offset the strong arguments against Bailey's performance potential in this specific game.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 2.8 rebounds per game and 1.6 assists per game in his last 5 games, indicating he is close to the necessary thresholds for achieving a double-double if he adds a few more points.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have been solid in rebounding this season, and their large spread (Houston Rockets -13.5) suggests that they could secure a comfortable win, allowing Bailey to play significant minutes to capitalize on opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which benefits players like Ace Bailey who can rack up points, assists, and boards more easily in such situations.
- →TREND: Ace Bailey has shown recent potential for increased minutes, averaging around 28-32 minutes in several recent outings, giving him more opportunities to accumulate stats crucial for a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Utah Jazz's current poor record (18-39) and recent losses, they might struggle against a stronger team like the Rockets, setting the stage for Bailey to maximize his performance in a desperation situation for the Jazz.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey's recent performance shows he averages only 1.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game, indicating a substantial gap between his current averages and the requirement for a double-double of 10+ in two categories.
- →MATCHUP: The game context features a large spread of -13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, suggesting a potential blowout that could limit Bailey's playing time and opportunities to accumulate stats.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the strong chance of a blowout, Ace Bailey may find himself with reduced minutes in the second half if the Rockets maintain a comfortable lead, making it difficult to reach double-digit stats in any category.
- →TREND: In his last five games against various opponents, Bailey has only reached a double-double once, showing a consistent trend of underperformance relative to what is needed to achieve this milestone.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are currently in a struggling state with a record of 18-39 and on a two-game losing streak, which often leads to lower overall team performance and fewer highlights for individual players like Bailey, risking overall productivity.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 2.8 rebounds per game and 1.6 assists per game in his last 5 games, indicating he is close to the necessary thresholds for achieving a double-double if he adds a few more points.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have been solid in rebounding this season, and their large spread (Houston Rockets -13.5) suggests that they could secure a comfortable win, allowing Bailey to play significant minutes to capitalize on opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which benefits players like Ace Bailey who can rack up points, assists, and boards more easily in such situations.
- →TREND: Ace Bailey has shown recent potential for increased minutes, averaging around 28-32 minutes in several recent outings, giving him more opportunities to accumulate stats crucial for a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Utah Jazz's current poor record (18-39) and recent losses, they might struggle against a stronger team like the Rockets, setting the stage for Bailey to maximize his performance in a desperation situation for the Jazz.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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