Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+400— stable
player double double
Jabari Smith Jr double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+400— stable
player double double
37.10
Composite Score
-0.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
1.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The analysis leans toward a low probability of Jabari Smith Jr securing a double-double due to concerns over his current performance and the potential for reduced minutes in a blowout game against the Jazz. While he has demonstrated strong rebounding averages recently, inconsistencies in assists and the likelihood of a lopsided score reduce his chances significantly. Given the Net EV of -0.00, the evidence suggests that the bookmakers have accurately priced this wager, making it wise to avoid it altogether.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Jabari Smith Jr has averaged 10.0 rebounds, significantly above the 10-rebound threshold needed for a double-double, and recently scored 18.0 points per game, suggesting he is in strong scoring form.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are projected to dominate the Utah Jazz according to the spread of -13.5, meaning Jabari Smith Jr may see increased minutes and opportunities to rack up stats during a potential blowout.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 228.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which typically leads to increased statistics, including points and rebounds, for all players involved.
- →TREND: Jabari Smith Jr has recorded double-digit rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games, showing a trend of strong rebounding performance, along with consistent minutes played, averaging 40.8 minutes during that span.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are looking to bounce back from a recent loss, which may motivate players like Jabari Smith Jr to elevate their performance, particularly against a struggling Jazz team that has lost their last two games.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged only 7.0 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game this season; his average assists likewise falls short of the requirement for a double-double, indicating that reaching this milestone is unlikely.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are significant favorites (-13.5), suggesting a potential blowout scenario where starters, including Smith, may see reduced minutes due to garbage time restrictions.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a lopsided affair, if Houston takes a substantial lead, Smith may not play his usual minutes, further hindering his chances of securing a double-double.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Smith has only achieved double digits in rebounds once and has not recorded more than 3 assists in any of those games, showing a lack of consistent form necessary for a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: Playing under the pressure of a large spread typically influences game dynamics, making it less likely for a player like Smith, on a winning team, to chase individual stats when already leading significantly.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Jabari Smith Jr has averaged 10.0 rebounds, significantly above the 10-rebound threshold needed for a double-double, and recently scored 18.0 points per game, suggesting he is in strong scoring form.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are projected to dominate the Utah Jazz according to the spread of -13.5, meaning Jabari Smith Jr may see increased minutes and opportunities to rack up stats during a potential blowout.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 228.5 suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, which typically leads to increased statistics, including points and rebounds, for all players involved.
- →TREND: Jabari Smith Jr has recorded double-digit rebounds in 3 of his last 5 games, showing a trend of strong rebounding performance, along with consistent minutes played, averaging 40.8 minutes during that span.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are looking to bounce back from a recent loss, which may motivate players like Jabari Smith Jr to elevate their performance, particularly against a struggling Jazz team that has lost their last two games.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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