Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+478↓141%|+1658
player points rebounds alternate
Cody Williams Over 14.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+478↓141%|+1658
player points rebounds alternate
62.10
Composite Score
+27.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the Net EV of 0.28, there appears to be an edge suggesting Cody Williams could exceed 14.5 combined points and rebounds. The evidence indicates that the Houston Rockets have a high defensive rating allowing more rebounding opportunities, which could benefit Williams' numbers. Additionally, the expected competitive nature of the game means he is likely to see ample playing time, although his recent struggles raise some concerns about consistency.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams is averaging 4.6 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, totaling 6.9 in points and rebounds combined, which supports hitting the over on 4.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a high defensive rating, allowing more rebounds, which can lead to increased opportunities for Williams to gather boards in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it is expected that the game will remain competitive enough for Williams to get ample playing time, potentially exceeding the 4.5 total.
- →TREND: In Williams' last game against the Utah Jazz, he managed to grab 2 rebounds in just 13 minutes, indicating his potential to exceed the threshold in additional minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: There are no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz, meaning Williams will have the opportunity to play without worry of reduced minutes due to team changes, which can support reaching the over.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged just 3.0 points and 1.2 rebounds over the last 5 games, indicating his overall production is well below the 4.5 threshold when combining points and rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive front, which may limit scoring and rebounding opportunities for Cody Williams, especially considering the team's playoff contention and higher stakes in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of -13.5 favoring the Rockets, the game script may lead to a scenario where the Jazz are forced to play catch-up, potentially diminishing Williams' involvement in scoring and rebounding.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Cody Williams has not exceeded 4.5 combined points and rebounds in any game, with his highest being only 3 rebounding attempts consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: Cody Williams' status as a player with only 21.2 minutes per game indicates limited ability to produce in a game where his team is statistically positioned to struggle against a playoff-bound opponent.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams is averaging 4.6 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, totaling 6.9 in points and rebounds combined, which supports hitting the over on 4.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a high defensive rating, allowing more rebounds, which can lead to increased opportunities for Williams to gather boards in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it is expected that the game will remain competitive enough for Williams to get ample playing time, potentially exceeding the 4.5 total.
- →TREND: In Williams' last game against the Utah Jazz, he managed to grab 2 rebounds in just 13 minutes, indicating his potential to exceed the threshold in additional minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: There are no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz, meaning Williams will have the opportunity to play without worry of reduced minutes due to team changes, which can support reaching the over.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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