Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+640↓135%|+2480
player points rebounds alternate
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+640↓135%|+2480
player points rebounds alternate
64.60
Composite Score
+41.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points and rebounds makes sense given the expected game script. The matchup against the Utah Jazz should play at a high pace, which benefits Thompson by providing more scoring and rebounding opportunities, especially considering his recent uptick in performance and heavy usage in minutes. The Net EV of 0.41 indicates the market may have undervalued this bet given Thompson's role in an up-tempo game where scoring output is likely to be elevated.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 76%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 7.4 rebounds over the last five games, bringing him close to the 19.5 threshold combined, and he has shown a significant uptick in scoring recently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, a team with a high pace, which often leads to increased scoring opportunities and more rebounds on both sides.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 points, the game script could lead to an up-tempo pace, allowing Thompson more chances to score and grab boards as his team is expected to be aggressive early.
- →TREND: In Thompson's last five games, he's consistently played over 32 minutes per game, indicating heavy usage, which correlates directly with increased access to scoring and rebounding opportunities.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are currently positioned as a playoff team, needing to secure wins to improve their seeding, thus intensifying competition against a struggling Jazz team, likely leading to more significant minutes and output for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 50%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's current average of 16.0 points in his last 5 games indicates he is unlikely to reach the 19.5 points and rebounds threshold, as he would need to significantly exceed his usual scoring output.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored to win by 13.5 points, which increases the risk of a blowout; if the game becomes lopsided, Thompson's minutes could be significantly reduced, limiting his chances to accumulate points and rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: With the implied projection of a high-scoring game (total 228.5), the fast pace might favor strong performances from key scoring players rather than Thompson, who typically focuses on facilitating and distributing rather than purely scoring.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Thompson has only exceeded 19.5 points and rebounds combined in one out of five games, demonstrating a pattern of underperformance that casts doubt on exceeding this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson's team, the Houston Rockets, is currently on a one-game losing streak; teams often focus on establishing core players in response to underperforming momentum, which may not favor Thompson given their balanced roster dynamics.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 76%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and 7.4 rebounds over the last five games, bringing him close to the 19.5 threshold combined, and he has shown a significant uptick in scoring recently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, a team with a high pace, which often leads to increased scoring opportunities and more rebounds on both sides.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 points, the game script could lead to an up-tempo pace, allowing Thompson more chances to score and grab boards as his team is expected to be aggressive early.
- →TREND: In Thompson's last five games, he's consistently played over 32 minutes per game, indicating heavy usage, which correlates directly with increased access to scoring and rebounding opportunities.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are currently positioned as a playoff team, needing to secure wins to improve their seeding, thus intensifying competition against a struggling Jazz team, likely leading to more significant minutes and output for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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