Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Under 6.5 points
🎯 Core Value Bet
-133↑11%|-13
player points
Cody Williams Under 6.5 points
🎯 Core Value Bet
-133↑11%|-13
player points
30.60
Composite Score
+2.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
14.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the context of the game, Cody Williams is likely to struggle to reach the 6.5 points threshold against a strong defensive team like the Houston Rockets. He has averaged only 3.0 points per game recently, reflecting a downward trend and limited offensive involvement, particularly in high-pressure situations where the Jazz may be playing from behind. The Net EV of 0.03 suggests a slight edge, indicating the market may not fully account for his scoring limitations under these conditions.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 3.0 points per game over his last five games, significantly lower than the 6.5 points threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a solid defensive structure that can limit player scoring, and they are favored by a large spread of -13.5, suggesting a potential for a blowout where players like Williams may not see extended minutes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be a high-scoring affair for the Rockets, the Jazz may end up playing from behind, which could lead to Williams receiving fewer shot opportunities during crucial stretches of the game.
- →TREND: In recent performances, Williams has struggled to get involved offensively, as demonstrated by only hitting the scoreboard for 3.0 points per game in his recent outings, indicating a downward trend in scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Jazz have lost two games in a row and are currently at the bottom of their division, the team may implement a strategy that further limits the offensive involvement of less experienced players like Williams, potentially keeping him under the 6.5 points threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/401348239/cody-williams, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/uta/utah-jazz, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Despite averaging only 3.0 points per game in his last five outings, Cody Williams has seen inflated minutes, averaging 22 minutes, which suggests potential for higher scoring opportunities.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily at -13.5, indicating a probable one-sided game; if they lead significantly, it could mean more scoring opportunities for Williams as the Jazz may be forced to push the pace, leading to more possessions and potential points.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 228.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, creating an environment that favors players like Williams, who may get chances to score more effectively.
- →TREND: In games where Cody Williams has played at least 20 minutes, he has shown potential to exceed his average points, so if the game's pace is quick and competitive, there’s room for him to find the scoring opportunities he needs.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz have lost their last two games and are struggling overall, leading to possible lineup changes or increased reliance on emerging players; this context could allow Williams more on-court time and scoring chances.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 3.0 points per game over his last five games, significantly lower than the 6.5 points threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a solid defensive structure that can limit player scoring, and they are favored by a large spread of -13.5, suggesting a potential for a blowout where players like Williams may not see extended minutes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be a high-scoring affair for the Rockets, the Jazz may end up playing from behind, which could lead to Williams receiving fewer shot opportunities during crucial stretches of the game.
- →TREND: In recent performances, Williams has struggled to get involved offensively, as demonstrated by only hitting the scoreboard for 3.0 points per game in his recent outings, indicating a downward trend in scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Jazz have lost two games in a row and are currently at the bottom of their division, the team may implement a strategy that further limits the offensive involvement of less experienced players like Williams, potentially keeping him under the 6.5 points threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/401348239/cody-williams, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/uta/utah-jazz, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available