Alperen Sengun Over 1.5 blocks

💤 Noise Bet

+178— stable

player blocks

Alperen Sengun Over 1.5 blocks

💤 Noise Bet

+178— stable

player blocks

28.80

Composite Score

+0.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

2.60

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the competitive narratives, the final Net EV of 0.01 suggests a very slight edge for the Over on Alperen Sengun’s blocks but lacks strong momentum. Although the supportive evidence indicates he has had some recent success in blocking due to increased shot opportunities against a struggling Jazz offense, his average of 0.8 blocks and potential reduced minutes in a blowout scenario pose significant risks. Ultimately, the uncertainty created by both factors indicates this bet does not present a reliable opportunity based on current expectations.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 50%

Evidence

→STATS: Alperen Sengun has averaged 0.8 blocks per game this season but has recorded at least 1 block in 4 out of his last 5 games, indicating a potential for exceeding the 1.5 blocks mark with increased defensive workload.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have struggled offensively, which often leads to more defensive plays to counter potential scoring, presenting Sengun with more opportunities to block shots.
→NARRATIVE: Featured game conditions show a high total of 228.5 points, indicating a fast-paced game where more shots lead to increased chances for blocks, especially for a starting center.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Sengun achieved 2 blocks in 2 separate games, indicating he's capable of stepping up defensively in key matchups and suggesting recent performance momentum.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the Houston Rockets' large spread of -13.5 against a struggling Jazz team, there’s a higher chance of extended minutes for Sengun in a game where he is likely to be involved in defensive plays late in the game.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Alperen Sengun averages only 0.8 blocks per game this season, which is significantly lower than the required threshold of 1.5 blocks.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are ranked moderately for offensive efficiency, potentially limiting Sengun's opportunities to block shots against a team that spreads the floor effectively.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 points, if the game turns into a blowout, Sengun may see reduced minutes in the second half, further decreasing his chances of blocking shots.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Sengun has only recorded 1 or more blocks in 3 instances, indicating inconsistency and difficulty in reaching 1.5 blocks regularly.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets' recent slump and their current schedule, players may be managing fatigue or taking fewer risks defensively, which could adversely affect Sengun's block totals.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 50%

Evidence

→STATS: Alperen Sengun has averaged 0.8 blocks per game this season but has recorded at least 1 block in 4 out of his last 5 games, indicating a potential for exceeding the 1.5 blocks mark with increased defensive workload.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have struggled offensively, which often leads to more defensive plays to counter potential scoring, presenting Sengun with more opportunities to block shots.
→NARRATIVE: Featured game conditions show a high total of 228.5 points, indicating a fast-paced game where more shots lead to increased chances for blocks, especially for a starting center.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Sengun achieved 2 blocks in 2 separate games, indicating he's capable of stepping up defensively in key matchups and suggesting recent performance momentum.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the Houston Rockets' large spread of -13.5 against a struggling Jazz team, there’s a higher chance of extended minutes for Sengun in a game where he is likely to be involved in defensive plays late in the game.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA.com