Kyle Filipowski Over 0.5 blocks

💤 Noise Bet

+125— stable

player blocks

Kyle Filipowski Over 0.5 blocks

💤 Noise Bet

+125— stable

player blocks

25.40

Composite Score

-0.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

1.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the Net EV of -0.00, the analysis indicates this bet does not provide a compelling edge. While Filipowski's historical performance against the Jazz suggests he has the potential to record blocks, his season average of 0.3 blocks per game and limited playing time of around 21.1 minutes significantly limit his chances to exceed 0.5 blocks. Additionally, the expected game context with a potential blowout could further reduce his on-court opportunities, making this wager less favorable.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: In the last five games against the Utah Jazz, Kyle Filipowski averaged 1.0 blocks per game, indicating a capability to exceed 0.5 blocks against this team.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are known for their pace, which can result in increased shot attempts and opportunities for blocks, providing Filipowski more chances to record blocks.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to have high scoring as indicated by the total of 228.5, which typically leads to more possessions and shot opportunities, increasing the likelihood for Filipowski to exceed his block average.
→TREND: Filipowski's recent performance has been improving with an average of 1.0 blocks against the Jazz in their last two matchups, showing a favorable trend for him to continue this output.
→SITUATIONAL: The large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5 suggests a blowout risk, which can often lead to garbage time. However, in competitive situations, it’s expected that Filipowski will get significant minutes, likely leading to opportunities that exceed 0.5 blocks.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Kyle Filipowski averages only 0.3 blocks per game this season, which significantly lowers the probability of him exceeding 0.5 blocks, especially given his limited playing time of around 21.1 minutes per game.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong frontcourt with a larger presence in the paint, making it more challenging for Filipowski to find opportunities to block shots against physical players like Alperen Sengun and Jae'Sean Tate.
→NARRATIVE: The large spread of 13.5 suggests a likely blowout, which could mean reduced minutes for Filipowski if the game becomes one-sided, further diminishing his chances to record blocks.
→TREND: In his last five games, Filipowski has only recorded blocks in two games, and he has failed to reach the 0.5 threshold in three out of the last five games, indicating a concerning trend of underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz on the road and coming off a two-game losing streak, it's likely they will struggle against a stronger Rockets team, leading to fewer competitive minutes for Filipowski and decreasing his chances to exceed 0.5 blocks.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: In the last five games against the Utah Jazz, Kyle Filipowski averaged 1.0 blocks per game, indicating a capability to exceed 0.5 blocks against this team.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are known for their pace, which can result in increased shot attempts and opportunities for blocks, providing Filipowski more chances to record blocks.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to have high scoring as indicated by the total of 228.5, which typically leads to more possessions and shot opportunities, increasing the likelihood for Filipowski to exceed his block average.
→TREND: Filipowski's recent performance has been improving with an average of 1.0 blocks against the Jazz in their last two matchups, showing a favorable trend for him to continue this output.
→SITUATIONAL: The large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5 suggests a blowout risk, which can often lead to garbage time. However, in competitive situations, it’s expected that Filipowski will get significant minutes, likely leading to opportunities that exceed 0.5 blocks.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com