Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Alperen Sengun Over 11.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1400↓200%|+2800
player assists alternate
Alperen Sengun Over 11.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1400↓200%|+2800
player assists alternate
63.70
Composite Score
+38.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The likelihood of a high-scoring game favors Sengun hitting over 11.5 assists, particularly against a Utah Jazz team that struggles defensively against centers. The game script suggests Houston will take an assertive lead, which could enhance Sengun's opportunities to facilitate scoring, supported by his recent uptick in offensive production. With a final Net EV of 0.38, it's clear that the market has undervalued Sengun's potential contributions amid the favorable match conditions.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Alperen Sengun has averaged 6.4 assists over his last 5 games, well above the 3.5 assist threshold required for this bet.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank poorly in defending against centers, allowing high assist numbers to primary playmakers in the paint, which is favorable for Sengun.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script is likely to favor the Rockets leading, positioning Sengun to facilitate play more with a higher assist ceiling.
- →TREND: Sengun has shown increased offensive output lately, averaging 23.2 points per game in his last 5 contests, demonstrating his active role in the game which typically correlates with higher assist numbers.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Houston Rockets are currently rank #4 in the West, the team is likely to play with urgency to maintain their playoff position against a struggling Jazz team, increasing Sengun's playing time and opportunities to exceed the assist total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Although Sengun averages 6.4 assists over the last five games, his assists can fluctuate significantly based on game context and he has not consistently cleared the 3.5 assists mark in blowout situations.
- →MATCHUP: The Rockets are heavily favored by 13.5 points, which could result in Sengun’s minutes being reduced in the second half if the game becomes a blowout, limiting his opportunities to record assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a projected game pace implying a potential low-scoring affair, even with a high total of 228.5, if the Rockets dominate, Sengun may not get enough chances to facilitate scoring for teammates.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Sengun has shown inconsistency in his assist totals, demonstrating that while his average is above 3.5, significant drops in assists can occur based on game flow and team dynamics.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may play with urgency, potentially focusing more on scoring rather than distributing the ball, which could detract from Sengun’s assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Alperen Sengun has averaged 6.4 assists over his last 5 games, well above the 3.5 assist threshold required for this bet.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank poorly in defending against centers, allowing high assist numbers to primary playmakers in the paint, which is favorable for Sengun.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script is likely to favor the Rockets leading, positioning Sengun to facilitate play more with a higher assist ceiling.
- →TREND: Sengun has shown increased offensive output lately, averaging 23.2 points per game in his last 5 contests, demonstrating his active role in the game which typically correlates with higher assist numbers.
- →SITUATIONAL: As the Houston Rockets are currently rank #4 in the West, the team is likely to play with urgency to maintain their playoff position against a struggling Jazz team, increasing Sengun's playing time and opportunities to exceed the assist total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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