Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Over 3.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+750↓635%|+648
player assists alternate
Cody Williams Over 3.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+750↓635%|+648
player assists alternate
61.50
Composite Score
+41.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on Cody Williams to go Over 3.5 assists makes sense given the game script where the Houston Rockets are favored heavily, suggesting a faster-paced game that could lead to more assist opportunities for him. The pro agent highlights that the Utah Jazz's struggling defense allows for favorable situations for playmaking, while Williams has been trending up in minutes, indicating increased involvement. The Net EV of 0.42 is positive, showing the market may be underestimating his potential based on current conditions.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 1.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, which indicates he is consistently surpassing the 0.5 assists mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's struggling defense allows for more favorable assist opportunities, allowing players like Williams to easily find chances to create plays.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is heavily in favor of the Houston Rockets (-13.5), this situation could lead to higher assist opportunities for Williams as the Rockets push the pace and look to extend their lead.
- →TREND: Over his last 5 games, Williams has shown an upward trajectory in minutes played, averaging 21.2 minutes, suggesting a chance for more assists as he is involved more in the game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries for the Utah Jazz, Williams is likely to play significant minutes; combined with the Rockets' recent high-scoring games, he will likely find himself in positions to exceed 0.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 1.0 assists in his last 5 games, which is only slightly above the 0.5 mark he needs to exceed for this outcome. His lack of consistent playmaking diminishes the likelihood of surpassing this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defense that limits opposing assists, which will likely hinder Williams' opportunities to dish out assists effectively against them.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of 13.5 points favoring the Rockets, the game script may lead to a blowout situation where Williams' playing time could be significantly reduced, decreasing the probability of him accumulating assists.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Williams has not shown the ability to produce a higher assist count consistently; in fact, he was held to just 0 assists against the Brooklyn Nets, indicating a trend towards underperformance in this statistic.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the spread indicates a likely blowout, if the game unfolds as expected and the Rockets dominate, Williams may find himself with limited minutes in garbage time, further reducing his chances to exceed 0.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 1.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, which indicates he is consistently surpassing the 0.5 assists mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz's struggling defense allows for more favorable assist opportunities, allowing players like Williams to easily find chances to create plays.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is heavily in favor of the Houston Rockets (-13.5), this situation could lead to higher assist opportunities for Williams as the Rockets push the pace and look to extend their lead.
- →TREND: Over his last 5 games, Williams has shown an upward trajectory in minutes played, averaging 21.2 minutes, suggesting a chance for more assists as he is involved more in the game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries for the Utah Jazz, Williams is likely to play significant minutes; combined with the Rockets' recent high-scoring games, he will likely find himself in positions to exceed 0.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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