Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Tari Eason Over 3.5 assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+560↓464%|+714
player assists alternate
Tari Eason Over 3.5 assists alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+560↓464%|+714
player assists alternate
60.60
Composite Score
+27.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game is expected to have a high-scoring pace, as indicated by Houston's significant -13.5 point spread and a total of 228.5. Eason's recent performance, averaging 1.8 assists over the last five games, suggests an upward trend in his playmaking abilities, particularly in a favorable matchup against a weaker Utah defense. The Net EV of 0.28 reflects a solid indicator that this bet is underpriced, aligning well with the anticipated game script where increased possessions will provide Eason ample chances to exceed 3.5 assists.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason's recent assists average is 1.8 in the last five games, surpassing the 1.5 assists threshold. This suggests he is trending upwards in playmaking.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by -13.5 against the Utah Jazz, indicating a significant scoring potential, which typically leads to more assists opportunities as the game likely becomes faster-paced.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 228.5, the expected increase in possessions will likely benefit Eason, allowing him more opportunities to dish out assists, essential for exceeding his average.
- →TREND: Eason has recorded more than 1.5 assists in 3 of the last 5 games and has been consistently contributing to the playmaking efforts of the Rockets during this stretch.
- →SITUATIONAL: As no injuries are reported and considering Eason has been getting around 30 minutes in recent games, he will likely remain on the court long enough to accumulate assists against a weaker defense like the Utah Jazz.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason's average of 1.5 assists per game this season indicates he's not producing significantly above this line, making it unlikely for him to exceed 1.5 assists consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, suggesting a potential blowout situation which could limit Eason's minutes and opportunities to distribute the ball.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread in this matchup, the game script may favor less reliance on Eason as a playmaker, especially if the Rockets pull ahead early and distribute minutes more evenly among bench players.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Eason has averaged 1.8 assists, but that modest uptick doesn't guarantee he will exceed 1.5 assists in a game with potential for fewer competitive minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets competing for playoff positioning, expect them to focus on their starters, likely keeping Eason's minutes lower than necessary to accumulate higher assist totals.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason's recent assists average is 1.8 in the last five games, surpassing the 1.5 assists threshold. This suggests he is trending upwards in playmaking.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by -13.5 against the Utah Jazz, indicating a significant scoring potential, which typically leads to more assists opportunities as the game likely becomes faster-paced.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 228.5, the expected increase in possessions will likely benefit Eason, allowing him more opportunities to dish out assists, essential for exceeding his average.
- →TREND: Eason has recorded more than 1.5 assists in 3 of the last 5 games and has been consistently contributing to the playmaking efforts of the Rockets during this stretch.
- →SITUATIONAL: As no injuries are reported and considering Eason has been getting around 30 minutes in recent games, he will likely remain on the court long enough to accumulate assists against a weaker defense like the Utah Jazz.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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