Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Tari Eason Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+250↓150%|+150
player threes alternate
Tari Eason Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+250↓150%|+150
player threes alternate
63.70
Composite Score
+49.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the high-paced nature of the Houston Rockets and the potential for increased shot opportunities, Tari Eason seems well-positioned to take advantage of a weak Jazz perimeter defense. Despite concerns about his minutes due to a possible Houston blowout, the upward trend in Eason's recent performance and the favorable matchup against the Jazz significantly bolster the case for him to hit over 3.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.49 reflects a strong likelihood that this bet is underpriced based on recent data and situational factors.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason is averaging 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, with a remarkable 3-point shooting percentage of 51.7%, indicating he is currently in excellent form from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a fast-paced team, leading to more shot opportunities, especially from three. The Rockets' 3-point shooting on the season allows for increased chances for Eason to capitalize, especially against a Utah defense that may leave shooters open.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored heavily at -13.5, they are likely to control much of the game, allowing Eason to play significant minutes and take more shots, particularly threes, as they stretch a potentially weak Jazz defense.
- →TREND: Eason has been trending upward with his 3-point shooting; scoring 13.4 points per game recently, in which he has been favoring taking and making threes, suggesting an uptick in volume that aligns well with exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and will likely be looking to bounce back strongly at home, which typically results in increased intensity and focus on offensive plays. This environment can yield more open looks for Eason from three-point land.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason is only averaging 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, which is below the threshold of 2.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have been effective at defending the perimeter, limiting opponents to a lower three-point shooting percentage, which will make it challenging for Eason to exceed 2.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With a projected spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this indicates a possible blowout scenario where Eason's minutes may be reduced in garbage time, impacting his attempts and overall opportunities to hit over 2.5 three-pointers.
- →TREND: In recent outings, Eason's performance has fluctuated, as evidenced by him hitting 2 or fewer threes in 3 of his last 5 games, indicating a tendency to underperform.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets may focus on other players to drive the offense, resulting in less reliance on Eason for three-point shots, particularly in a high-total game where offense may be distributed among multiple players.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason is averaging 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, with a remarkable 3-point shooting percentage of 51.7%, indicating he is currently in excellent form from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a fast-paced team, leading to more shot opportunities, especially from three. The Rockets' 3-point shooting on the season allows for increased chances for Eason to capitalize, especially against a Utah defense that may leave shooters open.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored heavily at -13.5, they are likely to control much of the game, allowing Eason to play significant minutes and take more shots, particularly threes, as they stretch a potentially weak Jazz defense.
- →TREND: Eason has been trending upward with his 3-point shooting; scoring 13.4 points per game recently, in which he has been favoring taking and making threes, suggesting an uptick in volume that aligns well with exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and will likely be looking to bounce back strongly at home, which typically results in increased intensity and focus on offensive plays. This environment can yield more open looks for Eason from three-point land.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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