Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Tari Eason Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+130↓3%|+4
player threes
Tari Eason Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+130↓3%|+4
player threes
30.10
Composite Score
+2.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
13.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected high-scoring nature of the matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, there is a strong case for Tari Eason to exceed 2.5 three-pointers made. His recent shooting efficiency at 51.7% suggests he's capable of converting more attempts, especially if the Rockets are in a position where they need to push their offensive game to recover from their previous loss. The Net EV of 0.03 suggests there is a slight edge, indicating the odds may not fully reflect Eason's potential performance in this favorable game script.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, but his current 3P percentage of 51.7% suggests an upward trajectory in his shooting efficiency.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points against the Utah Jazz, indicating a high-scoring game, which typically leads to more three-point opportunities for players.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game is expected to be competitive, allowing Eason to play significant minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 2.5 three-pointers.
- →TREND: Eason's recent performance indicates improvement in his offensive game, scoring an average of 13.4 points per game, which correlates with increased three-point attempts.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' last game was a loss, which can stimulate them to bounce back strongly, leading to open looks for Eason as they lean into their offensive strategy.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason's average of 2.0 threes made per game in the last five games indicates he is not consistently hitting 3-pointers at a rate that exceeds 2.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily by 13.5 points, suggesting a potential blowout, which often leads to reduced playing time for starters like Eason, thus limiting his opportunity to make over 2.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: A high-scoring total of 228.5 may suggest more offense, but if the Rockets establish an early lead, the game script may call for Eason to focus more on defense and rebounding rather than shooting threes.
- →TREND: Eason's recent performance of only averaging 2.0 threes made per game shows he has not consistently performed well enough to exceed this mark, demonstrating an underperformance relative to the threshold of 2.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: The larger spread and potential for a blowout could mean he may not play as many minutes as needed to surpass 2.5 threes, especially if the bench is utilized more in the latter stages of the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tari Eason has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, but his current 3P percentage of 51.7% suggests an upward trajectory in his shooting efficiency.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points against the Utah Jazz, indicating a high-scoring game, which typically leads to more three-point opportunities for players.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game is expected to be competitive, allowing Eason to play significant minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 2.5 three-pointers.
- →TREND: Eason's recent performance indicates improvement in his offensive game, scoring an average of 13.4 points per game, which correlates with increased three-point attempts.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' last game was a loss, which can stimulate them to bounce back strongly, leading to open looks for Eason as they lean into their offensive strategy.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available