Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 31.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+430↓136%|+1630
player points rebounds alternate
Amen Thompson Over 31.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+430↓136%|+1630
player points rebounds alternate
62.10
Composite Score
+26.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests a high-paced matchup where Amen Thompson has the opportunity to exceed the point and rebound threshold due to the Houston Rockets' offensive strength against a struggling Utah Jazz defense. Thompson's current average of 16.0 points and 7.4 rebounds aligns well with the favorable matchup, and with the Rockets expected to dominate, he is likely to play significant minutes, giving him the chance to surpass the combined total of 31.5. The Net EV of 0.26 indicates that this bet is underpriced given the circumstances, making it a strong betting opportunity.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent average of 16.0 points per game exceeds the threshold of 15.5 when combined with his 7.4 rebounds per game, bringing his contributions close to the required total.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have struggled defensively, as evidenced by their recent losses, which allows more scoring opportunities for players like Thompson.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it indicates a expected strong performance from the Rockets, likely leading to Thompson playing significant minutes while contributing on both ends of the floor.
- →TREND: Over his last 5 games, Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and is trending upward with increased minutes, showing a capacity to go above the 15.5 threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are not performing well recently, and Thompson is likely to benefit from a high-paced game as Houston looks to bounce back from a loss, which increases his potential for scoring and rebounding.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent points and rebounds average is 16.0 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, totaling 23.4. However, he has frequently struggled to convert points against strong defenses, indicating a risk of low scoring performance.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, which suggests a blowout risk; if the game turns lopsided, Thompson may see reduced minutes and thus fewer opportunities to accumulate points and rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: The expected game script indicates that the Rockets will dominate the game. In such scenarios, Amen Thompson is likely to spend the latter part of the game on the bench as the Rockets try to manage their lead, limiting his chances of exceeding the threshold.
- →TREND: Despite averaging over 16 points in the last 5 games, Thompson's performance has been inconsistent within that stretch, and the last game against the Rockets specifically highlights him accumulating only 9 rebounds, showing he has not consistently reached over the combined average necessary.
- →SITUATIONAL: Amen Thompson has been playing heavy minutes at around 39 per game lately, potentially leading to fatigue. This, coupled with a loss in momentum with his team on a two-game losing streak, could negatively impact his performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent average of 16.0 points per game exceeds the threshold of 15.5 when combined with his 7.4 rebounds per game, bringing his contributions close to the required total.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have struggled defensively, as evidenced by their recent losses, which allows more scoring opportunities for players like Thompson.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it indicates a expected strong performance from the Rockets, likely leading to Thompson playing significant minutes while contributing on both ends of the floor.
- →TREND: Over his last 5 games, Thompson has averaged 16.0 points and is trending upward with increased minutes, showing a capacity to go above the 15.5 threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are not performing well recently, and Thompson is likely to benefit from a high-paced game as Houston looks to bounce back from a loss, which increases his potential for scoring and rebounding.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
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