Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Over 26.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+490↓170%|+1190
player points rebounds alternate
Ace Bailey Over 26.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+490↓170%|+1190
player points rebounds alternate
61.50
Composite Score
+26.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
I recommend betting on Ace Bailey Over 26.5 player points and rebounds because the expected game script suggests a high-paced match where the Houston Rockets dominate. Bailey's opportunity for production could increase due to the potential for garbage time statistics if the game gets out of hand. This aligns with the positive Net EV of 0.26, indicating that the market may have undervalued his chances to exceed his averages given the favorable circumstances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 2.8 rebounds per game and 9.2 points per game, giving him a combined average of 12 points and rebounds, which is above the threshold of 11.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a high-paced team, leading to more possessions, which statistically favors increased individual stats, including Ace Bailey's points and rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it is expected that they will dominate, potentially allowing Bailey to accumulate stats during garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
- →TREND: In a recent matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, Bailey recorded 4 rebounds, showcasing the potential to exceed his average when given sufficient minutes, particularly in favorable game conditions.
- →SITUATIONAL: Currently, the Utah Jazz are on a two-game losing streak, indicating potential defensive lapses which could allow Bailey to take advantage of scoring and rebounding opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey is averaging only 9.2 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, totaling 12.0 in points and rebounds, which is just barely above the threshold of 11.5 but not consistent enough to exceed it regularly.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive unit which may limit Bailey's chances to score and board, making it challenging for him to accumulate the necessary numbers to exceed 11.5.
- →NARRATIVE: With a significant spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, there is a potential for a blowout, leading to limited minutes for Bailey if the starters are pulled in the second half, negatively impacting his stats.
- →TREND: In the past five games, Bailey has not consistently eclipsed 11.5 points and rebounds combined, with performances significantly below this line, indicating an ongoing underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are currently on a 2-game losing streak and struggling, which may lead to fewer competitive matchups and limited chances for Bailey to accumulate points and rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 2.8 rebounds per game and 9.2 points per game, giving him a combined average of 12 points and rebounds, which is above the threshold of 11.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a high-paced team, leading to more possessions, which statistically favors increased individual stats, including Ace Bailey's points and rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it is expected that they will dominate, potentially allowing Bailey to accumulate stats during garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
- →TREND: In a recent matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, Bailey recorded 4 rebounds, showcasing the potential to exceed his average when given sufficient minutes, particularly in favorable game conditions.
- →SITUATIONAL: Currently, the Utah Jazz are on a two-game losing streak, indicating potential defensive lapses which could allow Bailey to take advantage of scoring and rebounding opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API
Related Wagers
Brice Sensabaugh Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate💤
+519+73.3% EV
Amen Thompson Over 34.5 points rebounds alternate💤
+640+41.2% EV
Tari Eason Over 34.5 points rebounds alternate💤
+1020+36.5% EV
Kevin Durant Over 44.5 points rebounds alternate💤
+970+36.3% EV
Alperen Sengun Over 44.5 points rebounds alternate💤
+1020+35.8% EV
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available