Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Over 29.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+410↓146%|+1310
player points rebounds alternate
Kyle Filipowski Over 29.5 points rebounds alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+410↓146%|+1310
player points rebounds alternate
61.20
Composite Score
+27.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on Kyle Filipowski going Over 29.5 combined points and rebounds makes sense in the context of a projected high-scoring game between the Jazz and Rockets. The offensive opportunities created by the Rockets' status as heavy favorites (-13.5) suggest Filipowski will get increased chances to contribute, especially given his recent scoring and rebounding averages. The Net EV of 0.27 reinforces the notion that this bet is undervalued, as both agents acknowledged favorable matchups despite different perspectives.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski's recent points average is 12.8 in the last 5 games, exceeding the target of 12.5 points and emphasizes his scoring capability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently 2nd in the Southwest Division, and facing a struggling Utah Jazz team (18-39), which could lead to increased scoring opportunities for Filipowski.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the projections of a high-paced game with a total of 228.5, both teams are expected to engage in a competitive scoring affair, enhancing Filipowski's chances to exceed the combined points and rebounds threshold.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Filipowski has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game, which plus his ability to score 12.8 points, puts him on the right track to surpass the 12.5 points/rebounds total.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are -13.5 favorites in this matchup, which indicates the potential for a lot of offensive possessions, allowing Filipowski more opportunities to rack up points and rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Filipowski's season average of 9.6 points per game is already significantly below the 12.5 threshold, indicating he has consistently struggled to reach those higher numbers.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, which can limit Filipowski's opportunities for scoring and rebounding, making it difficult for him to exceed the alternate total.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 in favor of the Rockets, this indicates a likelihood of a blowout, which could reduce Filipowski's minutes and opportunities to accumulate points and rebounds.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Filipowski has averaged only 12.8 points per game. However, those numbers may be misleading, as they include a few higher performances that are unsustainable over an extended stretch.
- →SITUATIONAL: The large spread and Filipowski's inconsistent minutes (21.1 minutes per game this season) suggest he may not receive the playing time needed to reach 12.5 combined points and rebounds, especially if the game turns into a one-sided affair.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski's recent points average is 12.8 in the last 5 games, exceeding the target of 12.5 points and emphasizes his scoring capability.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently 2nd in the Southwest Division, and facing a struggling Utah Jazz team (18-39), which could lead to increased scoring opportunities for Filipowski.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the projections of a high-paced game with a total of 228.5, both teams are expected to engage in a competitive scoring affair, enhancing Filipowski's chances to exceed the combined points and rebounds threshold.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Filipowski has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game, which plus his ability to score 12.8 points, puts him on the right track to surpass the 12.5 points/rebounds total.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are -13.5 favorites in this matchup, which indicates the potential for a lot of offensive possessions, allowing Filipowski more opportunities to rack up points and rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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