Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Under 2.5 rebounds
🎯 Core Value Bet
+118↓2%|+2
player rebounds
Cody Williams Under 2.5 rebounds
🎯 Core Value Bet
+118↓2%|+2
player rebounds
37.60
Composite Score
+6.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
32.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the heavy spread favoring Houston by 13.5 points, the expectation is for a game that may allow Cody Williams limited playing time, particularly in the second half. His consistent performance of averaging only 1.2 rebounds over the last five games, alongside the strong Houston defense limiting rebounding opportunities, supports the likelihood of him staying under 2.5 rebounds. The Net EV of 0.07 indicates a slight edge, reflecting a situation where the bet is underpriced based on historical performance and projected game dynamics.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 1.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, clearly under the 2.5 rebounds threshold, indicating he has consistently failed to meet this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently a strong defensive team, which might limit rebounding opportunities for Williams, especially given their recent performance and positioning in the playoff standings.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread favoring Houston by 13.5 points, the game script may lead to a blowout, causing Williams' minutes to be significantly reduced in the second half, limiting his chances for rebounds.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Williams has not exceeded 2 rebounds in any game, with multiple games seeing him record 0 rebounds, suggesting a sharp decline in his rebounding effectiveness.
- →SITUATIONAL: Cody Williams has averaged only 21.2 minutes per game this season, and with the potential for reduced playing time in a heavily favored matchup for Houston, his chances of exceeding 2.5 rebounds diminish even further.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged 2.3 rebounds this season with a recent average of 1.2 rebounds over the last 5 games, indicating he is near the threshold but showing potential for an increase in a competitive game situation.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, who are currently engaged in a high-scoring matchup with a total of 228.5, are known for their fast-paced play, which typically results in more rebound opportunities for players like Williams.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this game is expected to be a high-paced contest; in closely contested games, Williams may see increased minutes and opportunities to gather rebounds, enhancing his chances of exceeding 2.5 boards.
- →TREND: In his last game against the Utah Jazz, Williams recorded 2 rebounds in just 13 minutes, highlighting that he can reach near his average despite limited minutes, suggesting he could exceed the threshold if given a higher workload.
- →SITUATIONAL: No significant injuries are reported for either team, and with the Rockets playing at home, they are likely to maintain pressure, leading to more contested rebounds that could allow Williams to capitalize on an increase in rebounding opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has averaged only 1.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, clearly under the 2.5 rebounds threshold, indicating he has consistently failed to meet this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently a strong defensive team, which might limit rebounding opportunities for Williams, especially given their recent performance and positioning in the playoff standings.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread favoring Houston by 13.5 points, the game script may lead to a blowout, causing Williams' minutes to be significantly reduced in the second half, limiting his chances for rebounds.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Williams has not exceeded 2 rebounds in any game, with multiple games seeing him record 0 rebounds, suggesting a sharp decline in his rebounding effectiveness.
- →SITUATIONAL: Cody Williams has averaged only 21.2 minutes per game this season, and with the potential for reduced playing time in a heavily favored matchup for Houston, his chances of exceeding 2.5 rebounds diminish even further.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available