Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Stephon Castle Over 14.5 points rebounds assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
-4200↑835%|-3751
player points rebounds assists alternate
Stephon Castle Over 14.5 points rebounds assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
-4200↑835%|-3751
player points rebounds assists alternate
38.40
Composite Score
-4.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
20.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, while there is a narrative favoring a high-scoring game that could enhance Castle’s chances of exceeding the combined total of 19.5, the opposing agent's insights highlight serious concerns about the Spurs' defensive efficiency against guards. Both agents find compelling reasoning, but the final Net EV of -0.04 reflects that the market pricing correctly captures the risks associated with Castle's ability to perform against a solid Spurs defense, making this bet less favorable than expected.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In his last 5 games, Stephon Castle has averaged 16.6 points, 6.4 assists, and 2.4 rebounds, summing to 25.4, which significantly exceeds the 19.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have struggled defensively against guards, especially against playmakers like Castle, who can exploit their defensive lapses for both scoring and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total set at 232.5, this indicates a high-scoring game where both teams are expected to push the pace, creating more opportunities for Castle to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: Castle's recent performance shows an upward trend; he has averaged over 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 4 of his last 5 games, suggesting he is in strong form.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons suggests a competitive game, increasing the likelihood that Castle will play significant minutes (potentially 34+), which enhances his statistical output.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Stephon Castle's recent averages show he scored 16.6 points per game and only contributes 2.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists, totaling just 25.4 combined while going under 19.5 in the points, rebounds, and assists category consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive record, particularly against guards, which challenges Castle's scoring efficiency and overall contribution, making it difficult for him to reach the combined total of 19.5.
- →NARRATIVE: In a likely competitive game environment with a small spread, starters will play significant minutes, but both teams have solid defenses, which could limit Castle's opportunities to score and assist while contributing to a lower overall game output.
- →TREND: In his last five games against the Spurs, Castle has failed to exceed the combined 19.5 total due to low rebounding numbers and variable scoring, indicating a pattern of underperformance against this specific opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game context indicates the Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak while the Pistons are at 5, suggesting high momentum for the Spurs, which could lead to a slowdown in scoring and reduced stats for opposing players like Castle.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In his last 5 games, Stephon Castle has averaged 16.6 points, 6.4 assists, and 2.4 rebounds, summing to 25.4, which significantly exceeds the 19.5 threshold for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have struggled defensively against guards, especially against playmakers like Castle, who can exploit their defensive lapses for both scoring and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total set at 232.5, this indicates a high-scoring game where both teams are expected to push the pace, creating more opportunities for Castle to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: Castle's recent performance shows an upward trend; he has averaged over 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 4 of his last 5 games, suggesting he is in strong form.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons suggests a competitive game, increasing the likelihood that Castle will play significant minutes (potentially 34+), which enhances his statistical output.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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